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Home / Bay of Plenty Times

Dairy cows culled, sold for beef

By Carmen Hall
NZME. regionals·
29 Oct, 2015 04:00 AM4 mins to read

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Dairy cattle numbers have dropped in New Zealand.

Dairy cattle numbers have dropped in New Zealand.

The nation's sheep flock and dairy cattle numbers have dropped, reveal new statistics, with beef exports expected to fall over the next 12 months.

That news comes hard on the heels of the 2014/15 meat export analysis by Beef + Lamb's Economic Service report which showed New Zealand beef export returns reached a record high, exceeding lamb and mutton returns for the first time in 20 years - as of September 30, 2015.

Chief economist Andrew Burtt said the sheep flock fell four per cent from 29.8 million in June 2014, to 28.6 million in June 2015.

For the first time in 20 years dairy cattle numbers had also decreased by three per cent to June 2015 as farmers took advantage of high prices and got rid of poorer performing cows, he said.

New Zealand beef and veal exports generated $3.2 billion in 2014-15, up 39 per cent compared with the previous season; with values up 10 percent and 26 per cent consecutively.

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It was driven by high beef prices, mainly due to strong US demand and low dairy prices.

New Zealand beef production increased significantly in 2014/15. Beef exports averaged $7510 per tonne in 2014/15 compared with $5970 in the previous season.

It was the highest hike in the 35 years since records had been kept, he said.

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However its 12 month outlook was a mixed bag with beef exports predicted to be down about five per cent in volume while "on the other hand average value per tonne could rise about 11 per cent".

There had been a record cow kill over the season and that has fed into the strong export volume, however he did not think milk production would drop that much.

The beef aggregate split into three categories: including beef and steer, heifer and cow and bull beef contributed to export prices, Mr Burtt said, while low milk prices encouraged dairy farmers to cull.

"They carefully culled their herds and got rid of poorer performing cows that increased the volume of cow beef."

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At the moment over 53 per cent of value and volume went to the US followed by China which took up to 14 per cent, he said.

It was also unlikely more farmers would rear beef but they might buy store cattle and finish them off but there were concerns about El Nino, he said.

"I think every individual will make his or her own decision about that however it's unlikely we will see wholesale reversions because what do you do once you have invested in converting to dairy. You aren't going to suddenly close up and fence around the dairy shed."

Meanwhile despite an increase in lamb production in the 2014/15 season, New Zealand lamb exports were down 2 per cent.

New Zealand lamb export returns reached $2.6bn in 2014-15, up 1.3 per cent on the previous season. In 2014/15, half of the returns were achieved in the EU, while North Asia, the second largest export region, accounted for 21 per cent of lamb export returns.

Mutton shipments fell even further on 2013/14 - dropping 8.8 per cent to 85,300 tonnes shipped weight - although shipments were still 13 per cent higher than the five-year average.

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The combination of lower shipments and no change in the average value resulted in mutton export returns dropping 9 per cent to $445m in 2014/15.

There was a lot of uncertainty at present about mutton opportunities and the last drought had affected both lamb and mutton.

But better lambing percentages and productivity meant "the decline in sheep numbers is not as disastrous as it might seem on the surface", he said.

Rabobank global strategist Tim Hunt said in its latest dairy quarterly that milk production appears to have continued to expand faster than demand in recent months.

"Milk prices are painfully low in New Zealand and will become more uncomfortable in many regions in the coming months."

Analysis undertaken by the DairyNZ Economics Group in August pointed to at least a two to three per cent drop in New Zealand's milk production this season as farmers tighten the focus on improving the efficiency of their farming systems.

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Senior economist Matthew Newman said that cull cow figures showed that farmers reduced cow numbers earlier than normal last season and "this looks likely to continue this season in response to low milk prices".

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