The Bay of Plenty District Health Board says there are a range of measures to protect patients and staff from Covid. Photo / George Novak
The Bay of Plenty District Health Board says there are a range of measures to protect patients and staff from Covid. Photo / George Novak
A public health expert warns peaks of Covid-19 cases and the flu at the same time could put "a real burden" on hospitals this winter.
University of Waikato professor of public health Ross Lawrenson says he is projecting a rise in Covid cases in winter and worries a "flu peak"will happen at the same time.
"A combination of the two will put a real burden on the hospitals so we really are recommending people who are vulnerable to get their flu vaccine."
The Bay of Plenty District Health Board said the health system could come "under pressure" if there was a rise in Covid cases combined with other respiratory illnesses like RSV and the flu.
"This is another reason why it is so important for people to get vaccinated against the flu and Covid-19, and to be vigilant about mask wearing," the board's Covid-19 incident controller Trevor Richardson said.
It comes as data obtained under the Official Information Act from the board showed there were 1603 recorded Covid-related absences of its clinical staff between February and April.
University of Waikato professor of public health Ross Lawrenson. Photo / Supplied
Lawrenson said projections showed there would be another rise in Covid cases because public health measures had been relaxed and people's vaccinations were waning and becoming less effective.
People also stayed indoors more during winter so were more prone to picking up infections from each other, he said.
"We obviously had a big peak ... that's slowed now so the number of cases are not going down any more.
Lawrenson said the Bay of Plenty had its peak earlier than places such as Hawke's Bay and Taranaki, which meant case numbers would probably rise sooner in the Bay.
But the rise of Covid cases was "complex" and came down to when did people have their vaccinations, when people got infected and changes in public health and social behaviour.
"Putting all that together, our best bet is that in June [or] July our numbers will be going back up again.
"How big that new rise will be we don't know, but it is a concern."
Lawrenson was worried about people ending up in hospital with Covid and people getting reinfected.
"If you get reinfected, you can pass it on to a vulnerable older person who is not immune or who has had a vaccine that [has] waned."
He was concerned about those aged over 65 as "a large proportion" of them had not been infected yet.
"That's more our concern about people who say, 'Well I've had it now so I don't have to worry or wear a mask'.
"If they can still get reinfected, they're unlikely to go into hospital but they are likely to infect other people."
Bay of Plenty District Health Board Covid-19 incident controller Trevor Richardson. Photo / George Novak
Bay of Plenty District Health Board Covid-19 incident controller Trevor Richardson said Covid hospitalisations and case numbers were still dropping in the Bay of Plenty but were starting to "level out".
The board expected "ongoing fluctuations" in numbers and was working with providers across the system to prepare for this.
Richardson said the community should "stay vigilant" and continue to follow public health guidelines such as staying up to date with Covid vaccinations, wearing a mask in indoor public settings and staying home if feeling unwell.
The board encouraged people to get the flu jab, as well as Covid vaccinations, to reduce the risk of getting really sick of needing to go to hospital.
Flu vaccinations are free for people who were aged over 65, Māori and Pacific people aged over 55, pregnant people, and those with underlying health conditions.
Richardson said a "significant milestone" occurred on Wednesday when Whakatāne Hospital had its first day without a Covid-19 patient since the arrival of Omicron.
"This shows what can be achieved when our communities follow public health guidelines and work together to keep people safe."
Data obtained under the Official Information Act from the board showed it employed 3383 clinical staff at Tauranga and Whakatāne hospitals.
This included medical staff, nurses, midwives, health care assistants and allied health professionals.
The data showed there were 1603 recorded absences from work among its clinical staff due to Covid-related reasons between February and April.
Absences were the highest in March when 859 were recorded. There were 604 in April and 140 in February.
The Bay of Plenty District Health Board was asked what the flow-on effects were now of these absences.
Chief operating officer Bronwyn Anstis said some "non-urgent and treatments" were being deferred to a later date to ensure its resources were focused on where they were needed most.
Anstis said the board's services remained open and were "operating normally where possible" at both hospitals.
Staff absences created challenges with resourcing and staff were redeployed to cover gaps where possible.
A "significant number of staff" had stepped outside their normal roles to help other teams with tasks such as stocking shelves and delivering meals, she said.
"This has freed up specialist staff to focus on important clinical roles, and we are extremely grateful to those staff who have agreed to do this."
Anstis said there were a range of measures to protect patients and staff from Covid.
All visitors were being asked screening questions at the hospital entrance to ensure they did not have Covid or suspected Covid.
Visitors were asked to wear a face mask, observe strict hand hygiene and practise physical distancing.
"Please be kind to staff when visiting our facilities – they are doing their best to keep everyone safe."
