The Bay of Plenty region could lose upwards of $6 million this week after new community Covid-19 cases were discovered in Auckland over the weekend.
The region moved to alert level 2 at 6am on Sunday along with the rest of New Zealand, except Auckland which moved to level 3.
Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern said the heightened restrictions would be in place for at least the next week.
It comes a fortnight after the same restrictions were introduced for three days following the discovery of a new outbreak in Papatoetoe, South Auckland.
Infometrics senior economist Brad Olsen said spending in the Bay of Plenty region dipped just under $6m in the week of the three-day lockdown.
"For the week ending February 21, spending activity in the Bay of Plenty region was down 7.4 per cent," he said.
The cancellation or postponement of event-based activities like the sold-out international cricket doubleheader at the Bay Oval would be a key factor in the economic impact of the latest restrictions, Olsen said.
New Zealand Cricket yesterday
announced Sunday's international doubleheader at the Bay Oval would be moved to Wellington.
Ten thousand tickets had sold for the matches between the Black Caps and Australia, and the White Ferns and England, the first ever sell-out at the Oval.
No more than 100 people are allowed at gatherings and events at level 2, and people should keep a two-metre distance from others in public.
Overall, the economy in the Bay of Plenty region was bouncing back well in some areas, Olsen said.
Tauranga and Whakatāne had been doing well recently but Rotorua was "still in a difficult position".
"If we look across the regions we can see Bay of Plenty spending was down but nowhere near as hard hit as other areas," Olsen said of the week ending February 21.
"It was the seventh hardest-hit region out of 16, coming through the middle of the park in the spending dip."
Auckland is set to face the biggest brunt of the restrictions, with Olsen saying estimates see the City of Sails losing upwards of $39m each day.
Kiwibank chief economist Jarrod Kerr said Auckland was the heart of New Zealand's economy, boasting 40 per cent of its entire economic output.
Locking down the city would have a flow-on effect on regions throughout the country, especially those within close proximity.
"The biggest issue the Bay of Plenty and surrounding regions to Auckland have is cancellations of Aucklanders going into the regions," Kerr said.
"There's plenty of business and personal activity that takes place that is now being postponed or cancelled."
Tauranga Chamber of Commerce chief executive Matt Cowley said it's peak event season right across the country.
The Bay of Plenty had a fully booked schedule and the alert levels forced them to cancel which was a big blow to accommodation, hospitality and retail sectors, he said.
While most businesses had set up good procedures for sudden alert level changes, Cowley said shifts had big psychological ramifications.
"Staff are concerned about their jobs and other personal matters. Business owners have to develop multiple strategies for a variety of risks that may not even happen," he said.
"We are overdue to revise our Covid-19 response strategy as we approach the one-year anniversary of the first lockdown.
"The sledgehammer approach worked last year, but it now needs to be more focused on the individuals and their close contacts."
Health authorities yesterday revealed the latest family with Covid-19 is directly linked to the Papatoetoe outbreak after they met with another household during the three-day lockdown during alert level 3.
Cowley suggested penalties for those who blatantly disregarded Covid-19 lockdown rules.
Meanwhile, Hospitality NZ Rotorua branch president and owner of Hennessy's Irish Bar Reg Hennessy said some bar owners are doing it especially tough.
"There are bars that are down $3,000 plus a week on what they would have been doing in normal times - not last week but before the virus," he said.
"They're yo-yoing in and out of lockdown on top of that. How long they can live in that sort of space is anyone's guess.
"It's all very well to be told let's be kind and we can get through this together but the day is fast coming where we're going to see some massive carnage from all this."
Kerr thinks there is light at the end of the tunnel, with Covid-19 vaccinations to be distributed nationwide within the next year.
"It's uncertain in the near term, and we're still dealing with the pain, but in a year's time I hope we'll wake up in a much better situation."
Rotorua Chamber of Commerce chief executive Bryce Heard agreed with Kerr.
"We're well ahead of where we thought we were going to be a year ago," he said.
"I think the Government and the council are doing the right things here by taking on projects and getting them done to keep the economy percolating.
"We don't want to go into our shell and batten up the hatches."