No confirmed cases of Covid-19 in the Coromandel so far has been put down to "very good luck" by an epidemiologist.
A Devonport man and his wife spent a weekend in the Coromandel township before the man tested positive last Tuesday, propelling the nation into lockdown.
University of Otago epidemiologist Michael Baker said the fact the man who "should have been infectious over that period" did not transmit the virus may be down to "very good luck".
"When you're looking at individuals, good and bad luck are quite important."
An "infectious person" could meet a "susceptible person" and they "don't always transmit", he said.
"On average they transmit a lot, but in individual instances they may not transmit at all.
"That's just the chance aspect."
Baker said for transmission to occur, an infectious person had to be exposed to other people in a "high risk situation".
"If one of those elements isn't present, you won't get transmission."
People varied "a lot" in how infectious they were at different points in their illness, he said.
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"You can have someone who turns out to develop illness, but even during the incubation period they may not have been very infectious.
"Generally with the Delta variant, most people are highly infectious at certain points but it might be that they visited a place where they weren't particularly infectious."
Another possibility was the man could have been in environments that did not support transmission of the virus very well, particularly if they were "well ventilated", he said.
When asked what the chances were of cases cropping up in the Coromandel now, Baker said: "With every passing day now you can breathe a bigger sigh of relief that it may not be there.
"Now, you're getting to the stage where if people are not presenting with illness and people are getting extensively tested, it's looking less and less likely that anyone will be infected."
This was because there had been "a lot of testing" and people who were contacts of the man had been tested, he said.
"The Delta variant does make people sicker earlier.
"They seem to get a higher viral load earlier in the illness so they become infectious more rapidly.
"But you're not in the clear yet – you do have to wait for a few more days."
Jak's Cafe and Bar owner Jan Caris, who was a close contact of the Devonport man who visited, said he was feeling "pretty lucky" about the situation.
"There's still a few test results to come back but out of all the people I know work-wise, we've all tested negative so far."
Caris said he needed to get two more tests done as he was a close contact and would be getting tested again on Wednesday.
He said the vibe in the Coromandel was "by all accounts pretty okay".
"We're a pretty close-knit community so I think everyone is looking after everyone – we've got friends who have helped us out and gone to the shops for us."
Umu Cafe owner Josie Fraser said she was feeling "cautiously optimistic" about the current situation given there had been no cases in the Coromandel.
"At this stage, all the five-day [Covid-19] tests have come back negative," she said.
"We have staff members that will not be connected to the wastewater here – they have septic tanks – so we're not using that necessarily as a gauge, whereas a lot of people seem to be."
Wastewater testing samples from the Coromandel had all returned negative for Covid-19.
Fraser said they were "really lucky" in the Coromandel township that there was no age restriction on getting vaccinated.
"People under 40 have been able to get their vaccines done since [August 14]," she said.
"We had a mass vaccination clinic then and they've just continued to do vaccines since they opened it back up."
Fraser said she would not be opening her cafe until after the 14-day mark.