Tauranga has lost $59 million in visitor spending due to the Whakaari/White Island eruption and Covid-19 crisis.
And the financial fallout is still being felt by tourism operators.
The news comes hard on the heels of Tauranga moving to alert level 2 with fears more jobs could be lost when the wage subsidy ends on September 1 for companies that can't get an extension.
Business owners were now ''hoping for the best while preparing for worst-case scenarios''.
Tourism Bay of Plenty chief executive Kristin Dunne said Tauranga's total visitor economy was worth $803m in the year ending June 2020, according to data provided by the Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment.
In the year to June 2019, it was $862m.
The Whakaari/White Island eruption, combined with the Covid lockdown, had dented revenue.
She said many tourism operators were ''struggling and facing significant challenges''.
The impacts from Covid were broad, unprecedented and evolving all the time, she said.
The tourism industry had suffered a ''significant blow'' and the ban on Aucklanders travelling would also be felt here.
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''The inability for Aucklanders to currently travel will have a noticeable impact on the coastal Bay of Plenty tourism industry.''
Auckland visitors contributed about 20 per cent of Tauranga's total visitor economy and was second-largest visitor market behind Waikato.
In the year to June 2020 that was worth $160m.
Hospitality New Zealand Bay of Plenty and Waikato regional manager Alan Sciascia said if the level moved it could ''result in business failures and loss of jobs unless there is further assistance''.
Sciascia had already received calls from business owners seeking guidance on how to reduce staffing levels if the restrictions were extended or raised.
''Since moving to level 2, the majority of businesses were quickly able to dust off their previous safety procedures and equipment. Most businesses (with some exceptions) were able to ride out the initial lockdown thanks in part to the government wage subsidies and the willingness of locals to support local businesses.''
''Next year, 2021, will be a very interesting year.''
Tauranga Chamber of Commerce chief executive Matt Cowley said many people were busy hoping for the best while preparing for worst-case scenarios.
''The biggest uncertainty for business owners is how long would a possible lockdown last. Those businesses who haven't applied for wage subsidy can still apply before September 1 if they meet the criteria.
''But the biggest impact would be on people's psyche.
''Both business owners and consumers will have apprehensions about the threat of going into lockdown again. People need to prepare routines for future Covid-19 flare-ups over the next few years to help reduce the anxiety, surprise, and financial impact of future lockdowns.''
Priority One chief executive Nigel Tutt said future lockdowns increased the risk of unemployment rising.
''I would not expect a two-week level 3 lockdown to have a significant effect on unemployment, but continued instances like this would obviously make it very hard for our vulnerable businesses and their employees.''
Bay of Plenty accommodation sector chairman and 850 Cameron Motel owner Tony Bullot said everybody was taking it ''day by day''.
''There have been lots of swings and roundabouts. We have guests who have picked up business through Covid. We have people staying with us who are doing machinery installations and they have never been busier.''
Josh Fitzgerald, owner of The Barrio Brothers, Flying Burrito Brothers, and Rye - American Kitchen and Spirits, said the wage subsidy had enabled them to keep more than 50 staff in jobs.
''It gave us security and some breathing space. It has given us time to reassess and make a few adjustments so we could figure out a sustainable plan.''
He said a move to level 3 would be tough.
''There is a lot of work and a lot of compliance that is absolutely necessary for no return. It would not be viable without the wage subsidy and other support.''
The Ministry for Social Development could not provide a Bay of Plenty breakdown of wage subsidy numbers but its latest figures show nationally 370,663 businesses have received $10.7 billion.