The job market in the Western Bay is rapidly changing as the fall-out from the Psa outbreak in kiwifruit spreads to wider industries.
Recruitment agents paint a picture of tough times as kiwifruit workers seek jobs in other industries in an already-tight job market - and it's only expected to get worse in 2012.
Industries feeding into the kiwifruit industry are also affected as their work is reduced.
Ian Chitty, managing director of Tauranga's Personnel Resources/Temp Resources, expects the job market to get more competitive in the coming months.
"I think it's going to be tough next year - it's certainly going to be a slow period once we get into the New Year.
"For the first half of 2012 the Bay of Plenty will see a slower export market, mainly due to Psa, and probably a lowering of confidence by the horticultural industry. People are being very cautious making sure they are not having excess costs, restructuring to ensure they save."
Restructuring in the kiwifruit industry due to Psa was going to have a big impact on the entire Western Bay job market, he said. "I don't think it's happened yet, but I think it's going to occur in the first quarter of next year.
"Kiwifruit is quite a big aspect of the economy in the Bay of Plenty, and I don't think [the impact] has really been recognised yet by the general community." Mr Chitty said positions would be lost in the middle-management area - orchard manager, quality manager and production manager roles would be eliminated in re-organisation and restructuring. As a result, there would be more competition for jobs outside the kiwifruit sector.
A flow-on effect was also being observed in other industries that fed into the kiwifruit sector. "We are starting to see it follow through to auxiliary industries like accounting, possibly shipping and stevedoring which might be affected by less fruit."
1st Call recruitment managing director Phill van Syp said many workers who usually picked up work in the kiwifruit sector had struggled, and other industries were also feeling the pain. "All the machinery and technology that goes into [kiwifruit]. It's going to be a tough time going forward. That feeds into the local engineers around the area that won't have that work going on."
Packhouse workers were now looking for unskilled work in other industries, heightening an already-competitive sector of the market.
Also struggling were exporters, the construction industry and any sector related to property development.
"Carpenters can't find work. One minute they have a contract, the next minute they haven't. The exporters are starting to feel it a bit at the moment, unless they have a product that's essential."
Mr van Syp said the job market had not picked up after the Rugby World Cup as people had hoped.
"A few companies have started to struggle lately. There have been some companies laying people off. Some have closed down completely.
"It's definitely more competitive, but it has been a competitive market for quite some time now.
"I would say it's going to be pretty tough for anyone that comes onto the market right now."
Claudia Nelson, owner/operator of Tauranga-based recruitment agency The Right Staff, was slightly more optimistic but observed a market that was "erratic" and "frail".
"We have been really good September-October. There was quite a lot of movement. In the last two to three weeks it's been a bit quiet again, which is quite unusual for this time of year."
The ramifications of Psa would have a "big impact" on the wider economy and job market but was not devastating, Mrs Nelson said.
"People will have to be laid off. Some have already been made redundant. We see those people coming through.
"These people that get displaced have to find themselves roles in other industries. Hopefully we can absorb them."
Suppliers to the kiwifruit industry - including transport and IT - would also see the effects of a much-reduced job load from that sector.
By contrast, hot areas for jobs included port-related and logistics industries - apart from those that were kiwifruit related.
"With the economy hopefully swinging round to the positive, it might help the region in the next couple of years," Mrs Nelson said.
"It's not negative out there, just a tiny bit slow."
Other industries looking more buoyant include dairy, infrastructure and technology.
Engineers and accountants were still in hot demand, as well as workers involved with environmental engineering and resource planning due to the roading projects in Papamoa and Te Puke.
"A number of organisations are still trying to find experienced well-qualified engineers to assist with infrastructure projects," Mr Chitty said.
"We still see a need for qualified accountants. When there's a downturn there's a need to review your numbers and make sure we are [doing] things correctly."
Mr van Syp said his company was expected to employ up to 200 people to work on roading and infrastructure projects in January.
"That's something that will pick up. There's a lot of money going into infrastructure not only here but in Hamilton as well.
"We are able to move [workers] from here."