Just as Ansett New Zealand moves into predominantly local hands, control of the country's flag-carrier is about to shift overseas. Such is the fluidity of the airline industry, a world of shifting ties, fierce competition and boardroom manoeuvring. However, developments over the next couple of months will determine the shape of this country's industry for years to come.
At best, Air New Zealand's future as a prosperous regional airline will be guaranteed by shareholding and management input from Singapore Airlines; at worst, it will become an emasculated carrier feeding Qantas' international network. At best, the renamed Ansett New Zealand will face a profitable future if it can exploit rights to fly internationally or foster its alliance to transport inbound tourists; at worst, it may appear as tenuous as the many airlines which have only briefly flown New Zealand skies.
In a hard-headed world, there is now a touch of the romantic about Ansett. Sir Clifford Skeggs, one of the transtasman consortium that bought the troubled carrier from News Corp, has remarked on his wish to see a locally owned airline. Doubtless, the new owners will make much of such patriotic pronouncements as they seek to turn around an operation which lost $20 million in the past two years alone.
In their favour, they have acquired an airline that is trimmer and flying fewer domestic routes than previously - a legacy of last year's pilots' strike. But New Zealand's ability to attract increasing numbers of tourists will determine whether the yet-to-be-named airline flies or falls. That, and continued inbound passenger referrals from Qantas.
This arrangement would, however, be undermined if Qantas succeeds in buying a stake in Air New Zealand. Many see the Australian airline's stated desire to be nothing more than a spoiler designed to undermine Singapore Airlines' purchase of part of the New Zealand carrier. For a Qantas buy-in to fly, Air New Zealand would have to sell Ansett Australia, Qantas' main domestic competitor. Even then, it may not pass regulatory or political muster.
Nonetheless, control of Air New Zealand has a powerful logic for Qantas. It would block a heavyweight alliance between the New Zealanders and Singapore Airlines and offer the Singaporeans the chance to buy Ansett Australia instead of supporting Sir Richard Branson's ambitions to introduce a third carrier to the Australian market. Singapore Airlines' main interest is the lucrative Australian market. Air New Zealand thwarted its ambition to buy Ansett Australia last year, and its entree to that market is now restricted to a link with the New Zealand carrier or Branson's soon-to-fly Virgin Australia.
Air New Zealand, which lays great store by its purchase of Ansett, would, of course, look askance at developments that undermined its strategy. So should the travelling public. Singapore Airlines' strategy and formidable reputation suggests it best meets Air New Zealand's need for a shareholding partner. And with Qantas in control, competition on routes across the Tasman and Pacific would surely reduce.
Consumers benefited when Ansett entered New Zealand skies in 1987. Its new owners should reinvigorate competition on major routes. That spirit would wither - and only Qantas' purposes be served - if control of Air New Zealand were to fall into Australian hands.
<i>Editorial:</i> Will airline moves benefit the customer?
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