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Home / World

Clinton holds wide leads among Latinos in four swing states

By Ed O'Keefe
Washington Post·
13 Sep, 2016 08:13 PM5 mins to read

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Supporters for Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump engage passing drivers at a "Latinos For Trump" rally at Anaheim in August. Photo / AP

Supporters for Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump engage passing drivers at a "Latinos For Trump" rally at Anaheim in August. Photo / AP

Hillary Clinton holds wide leads among Latino voters in four battleground states and enjoys an edge on questions of temperament and who's best equipped to solve the nation's problems.

But Donald Trump is not faring as poorly as some might think, amid doubts about Clinton's trustworthiness.

Clinton is far ahead among Latino voters in Arizona, Colorado, Florida and Nevada, with her biggest lead at 50 percentage points in Arizona and smallest in Florida, where she's ahead by 24 points, according to a new poll for Univision News by Bendixen & Amandi and the Tarrance Group.

Clinton's advantages over Trump among Latino voters are similar to President Barack Obama's advantage over Republican Mitt Romney in 2012 in Nevada, Florida and Arizona, while her 45-point lead in Colorado is smaller than Obama's 52-point edge there four years ago.

The results underscore how Latino voters are poised to fuel Clinton's support in key battleground states where they make up a significant and growing share of the electorate.

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Turnout remains a critical question going forward, and it is unclear whether this year's election will energise Hispanic Americans to vote at higher rates than previous years when fewer than half cast ballots.

The poll also measured support for Libertarian presidential candidate Gary Johnson and Green Party candidate Jill Stein. Johnson earned support from 5 or 6 per cent of voters in each state, while Stein didn't earn more than 3 per cent.

Roughly three-quarters of respondents say they're unlikely to change their minds before election day. Clinton is viewed as the most favourable among Latino voters in all four states, while even larger majorities there have negative views of Trump.

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In recent weeks, Trump floated the idea of revamping his immigration strategy in a bid to revive his standing among Hispanics, who factor immigration policy into their support for a potential candidate but do not consider it their top issue of concern.


LATEST POLL AVERAGES
RealClearPolitics.com national poll averages
Clinton 45.6% (+2.4)
Trump 43.4%

Battleground states
RCP poll averages

Steady Dem:
Colorado Clinton +9.7
Pennsylvania Clinton +6.2
Michigan Clinton +5.6
Wisconsin +5.3
New Hampshire Clinton +5

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Leaning Dem:
Virginia Clinton +3.7
Ohio Clinton +2.5

Toss-up:
Nevada Clinton +1.5
North Carolina Clinton +0.8
Florida Trump +0.1
Iowa Trump +0.8
Arizona Trump +1.6

Leaning Rep:
Georgia Trump +2
Missouri Trump +3

Trump last month announced that he would give a major policy address and then delayed it several times before scheduling the speech on the same day as a trip to Mexico to meet with that country's president, Enrique Peña Nieto. But when he returned to the United States, he doubled down on his long-held immigration views, prompting a handful of prominent Hispanic business and religious leaders to cut ties to his campaign.

Trump is seen unfavourably by 81 per cent of Hispanic voters in Colorado, 79 per cent in Nevada, 78 per cent in Arizona and 68 per cent in Florida. At least 6 in 10 likely Hispanic voters in each state believe that Trump will continue making insensitive remarks despite recently expressing regret for sometimes saying "the wrong thing".

But only 40 per cent or fewer respondents in each state believe that as president he will deport all undocumented immigrants in the United States. In all but Nevada, a larger share of Hispanic voters believe that he would allow at least some undocumented immigrants to stay in the country.

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The poll results contradict Trump's recent claims that he enjoys broad support among minority voters. Yesterday, he told the National Guard Association conference in Baltimore that he is doing "amazingly well with African American and Hispanic workers". Just 5 per cent of black voters support Trump and 91 per cent back Clinton, according to an average of August and September Post-ABC polling data.

Clinton is widely favoured in each state to do a better job improving the lives of Hispanics and is seen as being closer to most Hispanics' opinions on major issues. She leads Trump on questions of who is best prepared to handle the economy, terrorism and immigration reform; of who has the better temperament to serve as president; and, by a slightly narrower margin, of who is more honest and trustworthy.

But many Hispanics distrust Clinton, with more than 4 in 10 voters in each state saying she is a liar - including 49 per cent in Nevada.

Other national polls show that Clinton is viewed unfavourably by a majority of all American voters. Her campaign has acknowledged that she must do more to present a more positive message and explain what she would do as president.

The Univision poll finds a significant gender gap among Latino voters, with Clinton's support at least 10 points higher among women than men in Nevada, Florida and Colorado. In Florida, Clinton also wins 24 per cent of self-identified Republicans, while Trump garners 59 per cent.

Among Hispanics in all four states, the top issue remains jobs and the economy. Immigration reform ranks second, with education, health care and terrorism generally ranking lower.

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A separate set of surveys released last week found Clinton with an even larger advantage over Trump among Hispanic voters in key states. The surveys, conducted by immigration reform advocate America's Voice and polling firm Latino Decisions, found Clinton leading by 56 per centage points in Nevada, 55 points in Colorado and 35 points in Florida, each wider than the new Univision poll. She held a 52-point edge in Arizona, similar in size to the Univision poll.

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