By ANDREW MARSHALL
WASHINGTON - Sometimes, the biggest stories in the world go unreported. Some of them are missed because they concern people or things whose significance lies in the future; at other times, it is because the nature of the change is so broad, slow and incremental that the nature of the shift just escapes notice, in terms of front-page news.
So here is the news: the next world war is on its way.
That is the only conclusion one can draw from the United States defence budget, which has begun a rapid escalation. America may be enjoying its longest period of peace for decades, but you would never know it from the way the Pentagon is planning to start spending. The target, apparently, is China, the new global enemy of the 21st century.
For most of a decade the US armed forces and the defence industry have been short of an enemy. Arms spending plunged at the end of the Cold War as there was no longer any prospect of fighting a massive, multifront conflict.
Defence spending has not been much of an issue in America since then, until the past year. Suddenly, it has come front and centre again.
In part, the reason is political. George W. Bush, the Republican candidate for President, has argued that the Clinton Administration - and by extension his opponent, Al Gore - let defence rot. That claim has been rubbished.
In any case, Washington's spending plans leave no doubt of its future intentions. The rate of increase of US defence procurement declined almost every year from the end of the Reagan defence buildup until last year, as the possibility of global conflict withered away to almost nil.
This year, it increased by 12 per cent, the first time it has hit double digits since 1984. It is heading for $US62 billion ($145 billion) a year next year from $US45 billion in 1998 and reputable think-tanks believe it may be closer to $US80 billion. This is the harbinger of a conflict.
In part, the reason is the usual suspect: the defence industry, which wants and needs a burst of activity to keep its balance sheets healthy.
To some degree, Cold War kit needs replacing but that does not explain everything.
There is a more profound reason for the new militarism. The US is thinking itself into a new global conflict. This time, it is not in Europe; it is in the Pacific, and it was spelled out in part in a document called Asia 2025, written by, among others, my namesake, a Pentagon military thinker regarded with religious awe by his Washington acolytes.
It never explicitly addresses the threat, China is simply called a possible future "peer competitor." The other post-Cold War "threats" to America - terrorism, civil conflict and Bosnia-type peace enforcement missions - all pointed to a smaller, more agile set of US forces able to deploy rapidly anywhere.
But the China threat - a nuclear power, two billion people, on the other side of the world - is satisfyingly Soviet-shaped and justifies a different type of military build-up. The forces can argue for more heavy airlift, more sealift, more attack submarines, aircraft carriers and long-range bombers.
The strategy for future war is laid down in Joint Vision 2020, the Pentagon's new blueprint. The keystone is something called "full spectrum dominance." That means "the ability of US forces, operating alone or with allies, to defeat any adversary and control any situation across the range of military operations," according to the Pentagon.
It "calls for the US to work to shape the international security environment in ways favourable to American interests, be willing and able to respond to the full spectrum of crises as needed, and prepare now for an uncertain future."
This is Pentagon-speak for: be afraid, be very afraid.
Of all of the projects spawned by the new "menace," the big one is the National Missile Defence. This is a system for tracking incoming missiles and then shooting them down with ground-based rockets, a distant cousin of the Star Wars project.
America says it is aimed at North Korea and Iran; it is not, or at least not only at them. It is aimed at China, and maintaining US dominance in the Pacific. It will cost up to $US60 billion; you do not spend that for one or two North Korean missiles.
By any standards these are serious developments. America is preparing for a massive increase in its armoury; it is shifting its gaze towards Asia and away from Europe; and it is preparing for a new global division, on a par with the Cold War.
"Most US military assets are in Europe, where there are no foreseeable conflicts threatening vital US interests," said Asia 2025. "The threats are in Asia."
But the consequences of National Missile Defence are spelled out in a classified US intelligence report. It says there would be a tenfold increase in the Chinese nuclear stockpile, more Russian warheads, increased proliferation in India and Pakistan - in short, an arms race from the Atlantic to the Pacific, endangering security everywhere.
- INDEPENDENT
Pentagon defence strategy
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