New Zealand will never win the World Cup but they have the best chance since 1982 to at least compete for it, with a high-stakes playoff against either Saudi Arabia or Bahrain in October for a place among the chosen 32.
Many might think that prospect is unrealistic after their
showing at the Confederations Cup. Before this morning's final match against Iraq, the gulf in class between the All Whites and other nations has been all too apparent.
The heavy defeat to Spain was not unexpected - they are that good - but the performance against South Africa in particular, when the All Whites saw a chance of an upset against a team under enormous pressure, was poor.
"It's been a big reality check," New Zealand Football chairman Frank van Hattum said ahead of the game against Iraq. "I am still confident we will qualify.
"This will give us a very serious wake-up call and it will really focus us. It's much better to be found out here, which hurts, but we have an opportunity to rectify things in the next three months. I don't think it's fatal. You don't become a bad team or bad players overnight. We proved that against Italy."
That performance against Italy is one thing that gives this present regime hope. Three times the players looked up to the scoreboard to see themselves leading the world champions and it is something few of them will forget.
Italy coach Marelo Lippi called it a "training game" as he took the opportunity to look at a few combinations but there are no bad Italy teams and with 30 minutes to go they were worried. Italy don't lose to New Zealand. Ever.
"I was delighted against Italy," coach Ricki Herbert says. "We arguably got the best result the country has ever had but we weren't convincing against South Africa. We have probably reached the highs and the lows on this tour.
"From a tactical point of view, we have played teams capable of exposing all of the weaknesses of our system, and that's important. I would rather find them out now than later. It's not putting us in any false position. When this tournament finishes, we will know exactly the lie of the land going into that playoff."
The All Whites have long struggled to compete technically against the best sides but they have often made up for it with passion and intensity. Those two qualities, however, were sadly missing in their opening two Confederations Cup matches.
They stood off their opposition and allowed them to dictate terms, inviting trouble. They were also sloppy when they had the ball and looked bereft of ideas on attack, particularly against Bafana Bafana.
"That was the culmination of a few things and I don't think we have had the ability to go back-to-back in internationals at this level and compete physically," Herbert says.
"But we are going to get a crack at this (the playoff) one-off. We are going to be fresh like when we played Italy. If our players are playing regularly for their clubs, then I think we've got a good chance.
"What this tour has highlighted is that we are going to need our best players, in their best form, playing week-in, week-out with their clubs if we are to have a chance.
"And we can't afford any major injuries. We are not going to achieve without key players and they need to be playing first-team football."
There are no guarantees of that, however, and that is one of the big challenges. Striker Chris Killen is seen as key but played only once for Celtic last season and four times for Norwich. There are also seven players at the Wellington Phoenix - most of them starters for the All Whites - and it's unlikely all will be playing regularly in the A-League.
One thing that can be done with more certainty is planning. New Zealand will base themselves in Dubai before October's first leg of the playoff and then fly in a day before the match.
They are also in the throes of confirming friendlies against Jordan and Iraq in the Middle East in September.
Herbert and his assistant Brian Turner will spend a day in Dubai on the way home to check out hotel and training facilities.
There is an expectation they will be heading to Riyadh to take on Saudi Arabia, a team ranked 56th in the world and who have been to the last four World Cups.
Things have changed dramatically since Herbert and Turner went to the Saudi capital more than 25 years ago and recorded an incredible 5-0 victory over the Desert Sons.
The All Whites haven't been back since.
If they come anywhere near close they might, just might, get their chance to play for that small, gold-coloured trophy.
Michael Brown is in South Africa courtesy of Emirates, official airline of the 2010 World Cup.
Michael Brown is in South Africa courtesy of Emirates, official airline of the 2010 World Cup.