Nobody will be so bold as to say it, but most know it to be true - the fate of the 2010 Tri-Nations could be known by July 17.
A scheduling quirk has the Springboks playing two tests in two weeks in New Zealand to kick-off the Tri-Nations and if
they are to continue their All Black-beating ways in Auckland and Wellington, you might as well crown them champions.
It's a different scenario for the home team who will be mindful of the old golf adage that you can't win a tournament in the first round, but you can lose it.
Australia will have something to say about the final destination of the silverware, but showed too much frailty during their June programme to convince they are a genuine threat to the New Zealand-South African duopoly that has existed since the Wallabies last won in 2001.
"It's stimulating to be playing the best team in the world," All Black coach Graham Henry said of the Tri-Nations opener. "I think the guys are excited by that. It's good to be starting at home rather than in South Africa at altitude.
"We need to start well if we're to win the Tri-Nations. We've got a lot of respect for the South Africans. They haven't got many weaknesses and they've won the last three test matches against the All Blacks."
The All Blacks displayed an expansive, counter-attacking style in the first two June tests before being frustrated by Wales in Hamilton.
The Springboks are not expected to deviate too far from the plan that brought them success last year.
They will use set-piece excellence to breakdown physicality and they will kick a lot and chase hard.
There will be more scope for the All Blacks to counter-attack from that kicked ball and Henry indicated that was the major reason for Joe Rokocoko getting the nod over the likes of Hosea Gear.
"One of the qualities of a back three player is he has to be able to play with the other two - you can't just be a lone ranger, particularly at this level. "Joe played very well in the first two test matches. I think he added a lot to what we were doing."
Henry said last week that he had a side in mind but it was a matter of convincing fellow selectors Steve Hansen and Wayne Smith. Those discussions were set to start in earnest last night.
MATCHES
July 10: All Blacks v South Africa, Auckland
July 17: All Blacks v South Africa, Wellington
July 24: Australia v South Africa, Brisbane
July 31: Australia v All Blacks, Melbourne
August 7: All Blacks v Australia, Christchurch
August 21: South Africa v All Blacks, Johannesburg
August 28: South Africa v Australia, Pretoria
September 4: South Africa v Australia, Bloemfontein
September 11: Australia v All Blacks, Sydney
All Blacks coach Graham Henry is looking forward to taking on the Springboks. Photo / Brett Phibbs
Nobody will be so bold as to say it, but most know it to be true - the fate of the 2010 Tri-Nations could be known by July 17.
A scheduling quirk has the Springboks playing two tests in two weeks in New Zealand to kick-off the Tri-Nations and if
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