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Home / New Zealand

Kiwi scientists imagine NZ's future

Jamie Morton
By Jamie Morton
Multimedia Journalist·NZ Herald·
30 Jul, 2015 11:58 PM5 mins to read

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Want to know what the weather's going to be doing in Christmas next year?

A 2050 where weather forecasts are available 18 months in advance - along with a fleet of ocean gliders undertaking scientific measurements and an aquaculture industry powered by marine energy operating far offshore - are part of a mix science fact and fiction that two marine physicists have advanced in a new paper out today.

Titled, When the Holiday is Over: Being Clever in New Zealand's Marine Domain, the paper features in a new future-focused special edition of the Journal of the Royal Society of New Zealand.

Dr Craig Stevens and Joanne O'Callaghan, of the National Institute of Water and Atmosphere, describe an imaginary scenario in which New Zealand "faces the ocean" -- or has become a marine culture, embodying a sense of place within the ocean, rather than seeing it is a barrier.

Looking ahead 35 years, they outline a world facing great challenges, including changing climate, difficulties with water, energy, and food supply and ask how New Zealand's marine future meet these challenges.

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They depict coastal cities that have adapted to rising sea levels, technology that provides better prediction of damaging events, and farmers -- on land and at sea -- adapting their production cycles to match the changing weather patterns.

In the oceans, acidification has altered the balance between species but their vulnerabilities are better known and therefore can be integrated with exploitation pressures that minimises stress on ecosystems.

New ocean-based infrastructure, such as a fleet of ocean gliders, will supply vital information that drives climate, weather and ecosystem prediction simulators -- the cost supported by a radical reappraisal of the ocean's worth.

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The authors write that New Zealand has to come to terms with being within the largest ocean of a planet two-thirds covered by ocean.

"We suggest that to be knowledgeably using our maritime space for the nation's economic and environmental wellbeing in 35 years' time, we must start the process now."

While recognising that New Zealand occupies a unique niche, they say that Norway offers a useful comparison with a similar population size, renewable energy supply, water, latitude and fjords.

"Over the past 50 years, the country has made the transition from a fishing nation to a socio-economic powerhouse.

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"The present day Norwegian activities in oil and gas, aquaculture, fisheries, shipbuilding, ferries, coastal tourism and environmental services all connect with their strong marine education focus."

The scientists say New Zealanders are happy to maintain complex infrastructure on land such as highways, water and sewerage but question why this does not happen offshore.

"We are also largely happy to have shared amenities on land; agriculture/exploitation is balanced with conservation and a growing understanding of the value of that conservation. Will society choose to see the marine space in the same way, instead of a polarised view?"

The future of New Zealand science

The special issue explores science in New Zealand through a number of different lenses from science funding mechanisms, though to public engagement and future scenarios of how science could change New Zealand's society.

Themes explored include innovation, the role of science in society, forms of knowledge and ways from a Maori perspective and examples of good practice.

In putting the issue together, guest editors Ian Yeoman and David Bibby were driven by curiosity about what the future could hold for science in New Zealand.

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Its papers include opinion pieces, stories and speculations, some by active researchers and some by others, but they are all concerned with different directions New Zealand science could take, says Associate Professor Yeoman, "futurologist" at the School of Management, Victoria University of Wellington.

"The volume asks questions about the future, aiming to understand what might or could happen," he said.

"We wanted to hear from experts in science, those that understood the bigger picture or those that could understand the dimensions and interconnectivity of science and how events could unfold.

"Fundamentally, we were curious with what the future may be and how others imagined it."

Emeritus Professor David Bibby of Victoria University's School of Geography, Environment and Earth Sciences, said the papers throw light on the pressing problems that face science in New Zealand today, and on possible ways to move forward.

"What emerges is a vision of New Zealand as a small but focused ecosystem comprising both science and society, which is able to make the most of our resources and to contribute to the global effort to solve the problems of the future such as climate change and shortages of energy, food and water.

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"This can be achieved if we use our science capital, if we have robust funding systems, if we focus on the areas in which we can excel, if we recognise that 'science is the discovery of the unknown', and if we work across disciplines and coordinate our efforts.

"It is up to us to imagine how good we can help to make the future that we can leave to our children and grandchildren."

In an article he contributes for the edition, the Prime Minister's chief science advisor Professor Sir Peter Gluckman wrote the critical role of science to New Zealand - whether for social development, healthier society, a healthy environment or for direct economic growth - was obvious.

"It is an essential investment that needs to be grown and sustained by both the public and private sectors," he writes.

"But science systems themselves will be subject to ongoing change because of external and internal pressures and with that the science community too has to accept change.

"The opportunities for New Zealand are real but a balanced and adequately funded science system is needed to exploit them - our country will be the loser if we do not."

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