Brian Rudman: Bacon butty aside, Brown's naivety risks costing him voter momentum

Len Brown. Photo / Richard Robinson

Oh dear, the Messiah of Manukau turns out to be a mere mortal after all. Would-be Auckland super mayor Len Brown has joined the rapidly expanding rogues gallery of politicians, local and national, caught dipping into the petty cash.

But given some of the rorts parliamentarians have got up to - accommodation allowances for example - the transgressions Len Brown is now begging our forgiveness for are piddling.

I doubt many voters will begrudge him the odd filled roll and latte as he dashes from one mayoral appointment to the next.

What is of greater concern is the Manukau mayor's willingness to risk all for a bacon butty, or alternatively, the political naivety involved in not recognising the risk.

As with MP Chris Carter and his ill-fated bunch of taxpayer-funded flowers for his partner, did no alarm bell go off in his head, warning that just out of sight the reef fish from the media and his political opposition would be swirling about, ever on the hunt for a quick and easy meal.

Unlike Mr Carter, who was last seen scurrying through the corridors of Parliament, the panting Gallery hacks in Monty Pythonesque pursuit, Mr Brown decided public humiliation was the best defence. On TV, he hammed it up, cutting up his credit card. Then it was off to the council chambers for much wailing and ritual self-flagellation. He later explained that physically beating oneself in the head and chest was a Maori gesture. Better than whacking others, I guess, but how much simpler it could have been.

Understandably, his political opponents are celebrating wildly, and like All Whites' supporters, why shouldn't they fool themselves while they can. They're even predicting a rival candidate on the left is about to emerge. However, given how tribal the left can be, the idea of a competitor for Labour Party-backed Len Brown's vote emerging to split the majority the pollsters say he has, handing John Banks the mayoralty on a platter, seems most unlikely.

Mr Brown's biggest worry should be that potential supporters will use this as an excuse to drift back and rejoin the majority mass of Aucklanders, so uninterested in local elections they can't be bothered to vote. At the last local elections, in 2007, only 35 per cent of Franklin, Papakura and North Shore voters turned out. Manukau and Waitakere managed 38 per cent and Auckland City 40 per cent. Rodney stood out with a 45 per cent turnout.

In early May, UMR Research conducted an Auckland mayoralty survey. It was paid for by UMR and not commissioned by any candidate or other third party. People surveyed were asked who they would support for Auckland super mayor if an election were held that day. Len Brown scored 52 per cent to John Banks' 35 per cent. The rest were "unsure". This was an even better result for Mr Brown than the similarly timed Herald-Digipoll survey which had him on 48.4 per cent to Mr Banks' 37 per cent.

This reflected the strong anti-Banks feeling revealed in the UMR polling, and suggests the difficulties this candidate will have erasing memories of the old untransmogrified Banksie who so divided voters. Asked to score both candidates out of 10, 46 per cent recorded negative feelings about Mr Banks (25 per cent of these "very negative"), more than double the 20 per cent negativity for Mr Brown.

At the other end of the scale, 25 per cent had positive and 29 per cent, very positive, vibes where Mr Brown was concerned, while his rival rated 21 per cent for positive and 15 per cent, very positive.

Overall on the favourability scale, the nice, relatively unknown, Mr Brown scored plus 34 per cent to Mr Banks' minus 10 per cent.

Unsurprisingly, Mr Brown's strongest support was in Manukau City, where he scored 66 per cent to Mr Banks' 25 per cent. But he was also ahead in every city and district except North Shore City where Mr Banks sneaked ahead, 45 per cent to 41 per cent.

Given the strength of the negative feelings Mr Banks triggers, Mr Brown's big concern is not going to be about his fans changing sides after the recent revelations.

It will be, as it always has been, ensuring they vote.