Rain coming, but then it's back to the drought

There's not a drop to drink from this tank as the drought forces the continuation of restrictions on water use. Photo / Sarah Ivey

Parts of the drought-stricken north are expected to get their first rain in more than two months today.

But forecasters are warning the showers are unlikely to be the end of the drought.

Showers are predicted for today and tomorrow in Auckland and Northland.

But they will not fall in all places, and by Wednesday evening, the weather is likely to be dry again.

MetService forecaster Oliver Druce said northern parts of the country had their best chances for some time of getting some "decent rain".

There would be showers for three days, some fairly heavy.

But they would not reach everywhere. "They could be helpful or useful but I certainly don't want to promise large amounts of overall rain," Mr Druce said.

"It could be one person gets rain and 10km down road they miss out. We certainly wouldn't call it a drought-breaker."

WeatherWatch.co.nz analyst Philip Duncan said weather maps showed a low forming in the Tasman Sea, bringing a front across Auckland and Northland today.

It was looking increasingly likely that northern New Zealand would get its first rain in more than two months.

Mr Duncan said the low was unlikely to be deep but it could herald a significant change in New Zealand's weather patterns.

"This low on its own is unlikely to end the drought," he said.

"However, it is looking likely that it is the beginning of a new weather pattern over New Zealand that should see more low-pressure systems forming in the Tasman Sea.

"This is first real change we've seen in the north's weather patterns for months," Mr Duncan said.

Any rain will be welcome to Northland farmers, who have had to cull cows early, and Kaitaia residents, who have had to restrict their water use.

Auckland is on track to have the driest three months since records began more than 50 years ago.

The prolonged dry spell has been driving up demand for water deliveries to rural households dependent on tank supplies.

Mr Druce said showers should clear by the end of Wednesday, bringing a dry Thursday, Friday and Saturday.