By CATHERINE FIELD
PARIS - French politicians are holding their breath, fearing that a referendum tomorrow on the biggest constitutional change in 42 years may be a catastrophic exercise in absenteeism.
By any measure, the proposed reform is important. It would reduce the term of the President, the all-powerful figure of the Fifth Republic tailormade by Charles de Gaulle in 1958, from seven years to five.
In theory, it would make French democracy more credible, as the head of state would be more frequently accountable to the electorate, diminishing the aura of power that has been irresistible for some.
But the reverse seems set to happen. Even if the outcome - a strong "yes" vote - is not in doubt, all polls suggest the referendum will be a massive flop, raising questions about the very future of France's democracy.
By some estimates, the turnout could be worse than a record low set in 1988, when just 38 per cent bothered to vote for an overhaul of New Caledonia's political system, and that was in a year of chronic election fatigue.
"Who gives a damn about Sunday?" the conservative daily France-Soir asked in a headline this week. The leftwing daily Liberation echoed the sentiment in an editorial. French political life needed anything but this bogus consultation, it said.
Prime Minister Lionel Jospin, who pushed for the referendum, and President Jacques Chirac, who reluctantly agreed to go along with it, have done a disastrous job of selling the need after the package was rubber-stamped by both chambers of Parliament. Neither has spoken strongly in favour it, and Chirac appears to be indifferent to the outcome.
"If they [the public] say, 'Yes,' that's fine. If they say, 'No,' that's fine too," he said in June.
One of the reasons for the five-year term was the hope that it would end cohabitation - when President and Prime Minister come from opposing parties. But cohabitation has been surprisingly popular with the public as well as a stabilising factor in France's volatile politics.
If tomorrow's turnout is absurdly low, the referendum may be shelved for years to come as a tool to consult the public or validate important decisions. The pro-reform lobby could emerge strengthened: it argues that France needs to ditch de Gaulle's strong presidency and completely revamp its constitution. Could there someday be a Sixth Republic?
Low turnout feared for French reform poll
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