By JOHN ARMSTRONG political editor
Labour and the Alliance are poised to govern into the new century with the help of the Greens, after an election-eve New Zealand Herald-DigiPoll survey showing National still lagging a long way behind and sliding towards defeat.
Translated into seats, this week's poll would give Labour and its centre-left allies a comfortable13-seat majority in the next Parliament.
The main feature of the latest poll is the10-point gap between the two major parties. Jenny Shipley's four weeks on the hustings have failed to lift National's support, which remains marooned around 30 per cent. Labour is now touching 40 per cent in a poll that has a margin of error of 3.3 per cent.
Nearly 44 per cent of voters expressing a party choice said they had made up their minds at some point during the campaign, suggesting National has had little impact on floating voters.
National strategists are now admitting privately that the party has only a slim chance of holding power after tomorrow.
The poll also continues the bad news for New Zealand First. No longer exercising the balance of power, the party has slipped further below the threshold to 3.6 per cent, amid signs that Winston Peters is struggling to hold his Tauranga seat.
Presuming NZ First does win an electorate, Labour and the Alliance would hold a combined 60 seats - one short of an outright majority.
However, the Greens would hold seven seats, providing sufficient cushion against National, Act, United and NZ First with 54 combined.
Labour and the Alliance could outvote the centre-right on their own, giving them the option of not inviting the Greens into a coalition. The Greens would still support a centre-left Government.
If NZ First did not win a seat, Labour and the Alliance would have 63 seats, giving the two-party coalition a five-seat majority over all other parties.
The Herald-DigiPoll survey almost matches last night's One Network News-Colmar Brunton poll, which placed Labour on 39 per cent, well ahead of National on 31 per cent. A TV3-CM Research poll, also screening last night, had Labour on 34 per cent and National on 29 per cent.
In the Herald poll, Labour's support has climbed two points to 39.8 per cent. National is up marginally to 29.9 per cent, but Act has slipped slightly to 8.5 percent. The Alliance is also down a point to 7.7 per cent. None of the other small parties gets near the threshold.
Translated into seats, the poll gives Labour 50 seats and the Alliance 10, along with the seven for the Greens. National would hold 37 seats, Act 11 and NZ First five.
Presuming United New Zealand leader Peter Dunne holds Ohariu-Belmont but his party does poorly elsewhere, there will be an "overhang," lifting the size of Parliament by one seat to 121.
The poll shows just over 22 per cent of voters stressing the economy as the most important issue determining their vote, with nearly 19 per cent picking the adequacy of social services.
Tax is the determining factor for only 10 per cent.
Some 23 per cent think the economy is now better than it was a year ago, while nearly 33 per cent think it has got worse.
Nearly 41 per cent think the economy is about the same.
* The poll of 1074 voters was taken during the six days to Wednesday and has a 3 per cent margin of error. The party percentages cited are percentages of decided voters. Nearly 7 per cent of those polled were undecided.
Centre-left on track to lead us into 2000
AdvertisementAdvertise with NZME.