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Home / Business / Economy

Fran O'Sullivan: Joyce vision falls short on key elements

Fran O'Sullivan
By Fran O'Sullivan
Head of Business·NZ Herald·
26 May, 2017 05:00 PM4 mins to read

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Finance Minister Steven Joyce believes that the 2017 Budget benefits all of New Zealand.
Fran O'Sullivan
Opinion by Fran O'Sullivan
Head of Business, NZME
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Steven Joyce's New Zealand of the future is "an innovative, outward facing, hi-tech country selling high value products and services to the world".

The Finance Minister's attempt at the vision thing comes at paragraph 21 in his first Budget speech. It's an ambition that many in business would agree with and embrace. But unfortunately, it is shorn of the necessary policies - including an internationally competitive corporate tax rate - to ensure it is delivered on.

It's also notable on two accounts.

First, there has been a significant shift from the rhetoric that defined Bill English's eight Budgets. Against the background of the global financial crisis and two major earthquakes, English's story was focused on resilience, investment and income redistribution.

Second, Joyce's rhetoric - while embracing modernity - does significantly overstate the substance that underpins his vision.

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It's worth reprising the key points which Joyce made at the start of his Budget presentation. He painted a picture of a confident New Zealand which is "shaping globalisation to its advantage".

"We've embraced increased trade, new technologies, innovation, and investment ... When we hit tough times in dairy - our biggest export industry - we got on and diversified.

"We've grown our tourism industry, education and business services. We're selling more apples, wine, kiwifruit and other high-value foods.

"And we're growing an increasingly impressive tech sector, with hundreds and hundreds of competitive Kiwi companies selling their amazing technologies all over the globe."

It is certainly true that the growth of the NZ tech sector has provided a strong hedge against the impact of the global dairy price slump on the New Zealand economy. And that Joyce has been an ardent champion of the sector.

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But in truth, we are still failing as a nation when it comes to ensuring higher wages, productivity and exports.

There is no realistic chance of the Government meeting its goal to lift exports to 40 per cent of GDP by 2025 from the current level of just under 30 per cent.

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The lack of substantial growth in real wage rates is another failure. It is really quite disturbing that the Government is having to fund a massive increase in Working for Families tax credits and the level of the accommodation supplement simply because for many families their take-home pay packets are not sufficient to live on. That's particularly so in Auckland (but increasingly in other centres) where housing unaffordability has increased.

We are still failing as a nation when it comes to ensuring higher wages, productivity and exports.

New Zealand's productivity remains a story of stagnation, not growth.

What the Joyce vision lacks is a credible plan to achieve a real lift in productivity, wages, and exports.

One step would be to bring home to the private sector that it really needs to pay realistic wages instead of expecting the Government (and other taxpayers) to effectively continue to subsidise their low wage businesses through Working for Families.

This would be a challenge.

Businesses, families and politicians have all embraced the notion of central Government largesse to top up pay packets.

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But if accompanied by a substantial cut to the corporate tax rate, a reduction in Working for Families (over time) should be achievable.

It will also assist our companies to stay competitive by forcing them to join the real world and lift pay rates so they become more internationally competitive. It's notable that in its 2016-2017 Budget, Malcolm Turnbull's Government announced it would progressively reduce the Australian corporate tax rate from 30 per cent to 25 per cent. Here, there is no sign that the Government intends to reduce the company rate from its current level of 28 per cent.

There was some additional funding support in the Budget through an "Innovative New Zealand" programme.

But New Zealand is still not spending enough on R&D to ensure that the Joyce vision becomes a reality.

In truth, much of the Budget was a "catchup affair" - aimed squarely at the Government's re-election prospects on September 23.

It is a mark of its relative success that both the Greens and NZ First voted for the introduction of the Budget because of the increase in the Working for Families programme and other measures to reduce poverty.

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This puts Labour's Andrew Little on the back foot.

It may be too early to state that there has been a permanent shift in New Zealand's political values.

But it is notable that when it comes to what have previously been regarded as left of centre policies - like extra support for hard-up families - it is National that is acting. Not Labour.

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