If you're hoping for bold Budget policy, don't hold your breath

Finance Minister Bill English. Photo / Mark Mitchell

It would be a stretch to suggest trading rooms will fall silent tomorrow afternoon when Finance Minister Bill English enters Parliament to deliver his seventh Budget.

These days, so much information is drip fed in the lead-up - Sunday's revelation of a tax crackdown on property speculators being a prime example - that Budgets tend to be anti-climactic affairs.

The apathy runs deep.

"Budgets are normally somewhat non-events nowadays, certainly not earth-shattering," said Rickey Ward, New Zealand equity manager at investment firm JBWere.

Still, English will have to pull something out of the hat to justify his time in the spotlight.

We may get a future tax cut forecast, while some more colour around reductions in ACC levies should be provided.

But, after seven years of National government, some market participants would like to see a few more radical policies for addressing long-term economic challenges, such as ballooning house prices and the impact an ageing population will have on future superannuation and healthcare costs.

The elephants in the room, if you will.

Craigs Investment Partners head of private wealth research, Mark Lister, said he would like to see at least some signals of reversals to cuts in savings policies that have taken place under National's watch.

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Those cuts include the halving of government KiwiSaver contributions in 2011 and the suspension of contributions to the New Zealand Superannuation fund in 2009.

The fund was worth $29.3 billion on April 30, up from about $12 billion in early 2009, but it's estimated that it would have been worth $43.8 billion by the end of last year if government contributions had continued.

Lister said one of this Government's strengths had been its "safe and steady" approach, particularly with regards to the economy. But at the same time, big calls need to be made on issues such as the retirement age and capital gains tax. "In some ways, all politicians are reluctant to make any big moves because it polarises people and you reduce your chances of getting re-elected."

Paul Glass, principal of Devon Funds Management, expressed similar sentiment in a Business Herald video interview. "When it comes to Budget time, what we would like to understand is what the Government's longer-term plans are for New Zealand, rather than just the next 12 months."

It would be fair to say that nobody is holding their breath.