The events that will shape the world in 2015 are unfolding now.
It is less than a week since the Russian ruble collapsed. That crisis has not been resolved despite Vladimir Putin's stoic address - blaming the West and preparing Russians for two years of recession.
Oil prices are still under pressure. They look set to stay low for some time, shaking up the energy sector, threatening political instability but fuel-injecting almost every other part of the global economy.
Meanwhile, it has become apparent in the past few days that Americans are in no mood to let the oil slump or the Russian meltdown spoil their recovery party.
A nod and a wink from the US Federal Reserve was all it took for Wall Street to shake off the fear that had been brewing over the oil shock and the Russian woes.
The prospect of the US economy really hitting its straps is shaping up to be one of the big trends that will dominate the world in 2015.
Yes, we've heard it before, but all elements are in place for the US to really boom: low inflation, cheap energy, cheap borrowing costs and a bullish stockmarket.
Federal reserve chairwoman Janet Yellen has delivered an upbeat outlook making it clear she expects interest rates to start rising in 2015.
If US growth does take hold next year then watch out, because when the world's biggest economy starts humming it will further disrupt markets which are already in uncharted territory.
If the US comes back perhaps it will bring inflation with it. One of the big stories of 2014 has been the mystery disappearance of inflation.
Nowhere has the phenomenon been as obvious as in this country where we've been running strong GDP growth for more than a year with no sign of any serious inflation threat.
That's a good thing. It has allowed the Reserve Bank to leave interest rates lower for longer, allowing businesses and mortgage holders to build some momentum.
But it seems almost too good to be true. Some commentators now worry about Japanese-style deflation while others remain convinced inflation is just biding its time, waiting to catch us unawares.
The New Zealand economy remains solid, though, remarkably so given the massive slump in dairy prices we've just seen.
With any luck dairy prices will claw their way back in the global auctions which will continue across the summer period. Much economic sentiment is tied to the direction prices are moving rather than the prices themselves. If we were to see an uptick of 10 or 15 per cent before the end of this season, then dairy farmers will have some grounds for cautious optimism about the outlook.
It looks as if the economy will manage to keep growing through this commodity cycle. Perhaps we've made some progress towards broadening our economic base -- however much we need to keep working on it.
Or maybe we have just got lucky. The delayed recovery in the rest of the world has bought us time. We've been gifted an extended period of low-interest, low-inflation growth.
Either way, New Zealand heads into the summer with one of the best economies in the world and with much to look forward to in 2015.
