The New Zealand dollar may gain this week as investors bet the partial US government shutdown will prompt the Federal Reserve to continue its monetary stimulus for longer, weighing on the greenback.
The local currency may trade between 83.50 US cents and 86.20 cents this week, according to a BusinessDesk survey of 10 traders and strategists. Seven expect the currency to advance while two say it may remain unchanged and one predicts it will fall.
The kiwi recently traded at 84.98 US cents from 84.81 cents at 8am in Wellington.
This week sees the release of a backlog of US economic data that was shelved while the US government went into a partial shutdown due to a political stalemate.
The end to the shutdown last week has turned investor attention to the impact on Fed plans to scale back its monetary stimulus, with economists in a Bloomberg News survey now expecting the first reduction in the Fed's bond purchases to be delayed until March after the shutdown slowed fourth-quarter growth and interrupted the flow of data.
"The shutdown caused key US economic data announcements to be shelved," Bancorp Treasury said in a note. "The key theme for financial markets will be back to tapering with expectations that the Fed will delay the first reduction in its bond purchases until March 2014 as the government shutdown would have slowed December quarter growth and may have impacted on other key economic data."
Fed officials will pare the monthly pace of asset buying to US$70 billion from US$85 billion at their March 18-19 meeting, according to the median of 40 responses in the Bloomberg survey of economists. The bank will reduce monthly purchases to a US$25 billion pace by July and end the programme at its October 2014 meeting, according to the survey.
The 16-day shutdown probably reduced US growth by 0.3 percentage point in the December quarter, according to the survey.
A key US jobs report will be released tomorrow after being delayed since October 4 because of the government shutdown. Non-farm payrolls probably grew by 180,000 in September, showing the economy was gaining momentum before the shutdown, according to polls by Reuters and Bloomberg. The jobless rate probably held at a four-year low of 7.3 per cent.
A report on Friday may show US consumer confidence was dented by the political impasse over the budget and raising of the debt ceiling.
In New Zealand, the coming week is light on data. A report on Thursday is expected to show the nation's trade deficit narrowed to NZ$1.1 billion in September, from $1.19 billion in August, according to UBS New Zealand.
Also on Thursday, reports on manufacturing in the US, Europe and China will provide an update on global activity, UBS said.
In Australia this week, traders will be eyeing a report Wednesday which may show third quarter inflation picked up. The following day, Reserve Bank of Australia deputy governor Philip Lowe is scheduled to speak at the CFA Melbourne Institute's annual investment conference.
Also on Wednesday, the Bank of Canada is expected to keep its benchmark rate at 1 per cent while the Bank of England releases the minutes of its October 8-9 meeting.