By DAVID McKITTRICK
BELFAST - The paradox is that, although there is once again gunplay in Belfast, once again bodies in the streets, once again an expectation of more shootings to come, nobody really thinks the overall peace process in Northern Ireland is seriously endangered.
It is certainly a crisis for those who live in the Shankill Rd district, which is being tormented by gunmen intent on shooting or intimidating, and for the authorities seeking to manage this hazardous situation.
But the rest of the city is basically looking on with horrified fascination as the extraordinary and bizarre episode sparked off by "Mad Dog" Adair plays itself out.
The feeling is that the peace process is not under threat because so much of this centres on just one erratic individual.
There is a background political context to it all, but much of it still comes down to that one man.
The Shankill has turned out a succession of mad dogs, but this one has behaved in a spectacularly rabid way.
In the background, though, the peace process and the Northern Ireland power-sharing executive both appear to be ticking over quite well.
Two major episodes during the summer, July's Drumcree stand-off and the loyalist feuding, have both greatly and obviously disturbed the peace, yet there is good reason to calculate that both will, in time, strengthen the peace process rather than damage it.
Importantly, it looks as though events have greatly weakened the standing of both Harold Gracey, the leading official of the Portadown Orangemen, who staged the first episode, and of Johnny Adair, who was involved in both.
During Drumcree, Harold Gracey called loyalists on to the streets, turning Belfast into a ghost town for a week or more.
But it was a bad move, because it generated much low-level violence and disruption all over Northern Ireland.
Gracey made huge mistakes in refusing to condemn violence. As a result he lost the support of middle Protestant Ulster, which watched with distaste as the police, who are made up largely of its own sons, came under attack from violent loyalist mobs.
This may turn out to be a point of historic import, since the ability of the Orangemen of Portadown to use Drumcree to batter everyone else into submission had the capacity to wreck the peace process.
This year was a severe setback for the Order, made all the worse by the fact that it was self-inflicted.
You can never say never, but the general Protestant rejection of Gracey's Orange disorder may mean that this particular weapon has been spiked once and for all.
Loyalists in other districts this year reached discreet and civilised agreements with local Catholic residents about their marchers; the Portadown men may now be sufficiently chastened to follow suit.
Unlike the Orange Order, Johnny Adair's Ulster Freedom Fighters technically supports the peace process. He has made a mockery of this, however, with his appearances at displays of loyalist weaponry and his organisation's issuing of death threats.
Although he has been the primary actor in the present loyalist feud, his return to prison this week is unlikely to end the hostilities.
If past form is anything to go by, there will be more blood-letting before they get around to peace talks.
Yet what is highly significant is the number of canines that, despite Mad Dog's orders, have refused to bark, or bite.
This is largely because Adair has gone into such patently manic overdrive. People who join paramilitary groups such as the UFF accept the use of violence, but there are degrees of extremism.
The Drumcree and the Adair push have both been attempts by different factions of loyalist extremism to get their way, to keep using the methods of the bad old days, and in the process to damage the peace process.
The failure of the attempts gives grounds for saying there is a strong communal determination that the day of the warlords should be past.
- INDEPENDENT
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