Canterbury looks good thing

David Ogilvie assesses a big weekend of action in NPC rugby
Division one semi-finals: Tonight: Canterbury v Otago, Jade Stadium 7.35 (Steve Walsh). Canterbury: Ben Blair, Scott Hamilton, Casey Laulala, Aaron Mauger, Caleb Ralph, Daniel Carter, Andrew Ellis, Mose Tuiali'i, Richie McCaw, Reuben Thorne (capt), Kevin O'Neill, Chris Jack, Campbell Johnstone, Corey Flynn, Wyatt Crockett. Reserves: Steven Yates, Vilimoni Delasau, Jamie Nutbrown, Johnny Leo'o, Hayden Hopgood, Ben Franks, Tone Kopelani.
Otago: Craig Clare, Glen Horton, Neil Brew, Seilala Mapusua, Matt Saunders, Nick Evans, Chris Smylie, Grant Webb, Josh Blackie, Craig Newby (capt), James Ryan, Tom Donnelly, Carl Hayman, Anton Oliver, Chris King. Reserves: Jason Macdonald, Grant Polson, Filipo Levi, Alando Soakai, Toby Morland, Ryan Bambry, Jason Shoemark. TAB odds: Canterbury $1.10, Otago $6.25.
Assessment: Canterbury has not been the dominant team this year that it has been ? many reasons for that, not the least lack of time for the All blacks to play. And they'll miss Greg Somerville in the dark, murky depths of the rucks and mauls ? and scrum.
But whether that's enough to stop it winning is doubtful. There's inexperience in the Otago back three which might be critical in a tight one, and so far Josh Blackie is pretty faceless when faced by McCaw. He would have to turn that around for Otago to win this.
Canterbury to win, reasonably comfortably, after a big forward struggle.
Tomorrow: Auckland v North Harbour, Eden Park, 7.35 (ref: Bryce Lawrence):
Auckland: Brent Ward, Doug Howlett, Mils Muliaina, Isa Nacewa, Tony Koonwaiyou, Tasesa Lavea, Steve Devine, Jerome Kaino, Daniel Braid, Justin Collins (capt), Ali Williams, Angus Macdonald, John Afoa, Keven Mealamu, Saimone Taumoepeau. Reserves: John Fonokolafi, Nick White, Kurtis Haiu, Brad Mika, Taniela Moa, Ben Atiga, Sam Tuitupou/Joe Rokocoko.
North Harbour: No team available, but believed to be at full strength. TAB odds: Auckland $1.35, North Harbour $3. Assessment: An interesting change in the Auckland midfield might lessen the defensive power against McAllister and company. This should be close, and in Auckland's favour is the fact so many of its players have semis and finals experience.
That could be the telling factor. But there's always an edge to this game and those North Harbour forwards have bowed to no-one this year.
This could be a great, old-fashioned blood-and-guts game, and if the Harbour forwards can get the Aucks into the grip, anything could happen. Auckland by a whisker. Division two semi-finals: Tomorrow: Hawke's Bay v North Otago, McLean Park, Napier, 5.30 (ref: Jonathon White):
Hawke's Bay: Donovan Nepia, Jacob Kennedy, Haydin Lafaele, Ray Karauria, Davis Norman, Dan Waenga, Chad Shepherd, Mutu Ngarimu (capt), Karl Lowe, Bryn Evans, Lua Lokotui, Michael Johnson, Tom Symes, Danny Logan/Hika Elliot, Clint Newland. Reserves: Elliot/ Logan, Arizona Taumalolo, Tawhai Ioasa, Wirihana Raihania, Chris Eaton, Aayden Clarke, James Rosenberg.
North Otago: No team available but everyone fit. TAB odds: Hawke's Bay $1.05, North Otago $8.00. Assessment: North Otago does not have the threequarter attacking power of previous years and that dooms it to a tough day. Hawke's Bay 13 and over.
Sunday: Counties Manukau v Nelson Bays, Pukekohe, 2.35 (ref: Kelvin Deaker). No teams available. TAB odds: Counties Manukau $1.14, Nelson Bays $5. Assessment: We might go for an upset here. Nelson Bays was clearly thinking about this match when wandering through last week's match with Wanganui.
The team can do much better this time and just might get through in a tight one ? 12 and under.
Division three final: Tomorrow: Wairarapa Bush v Horowhenua Kapiti, Memorial Park, Masterton, 2.35pm (ref: Chris Pollock):
TAB odds: Wairarapa Bush $1.60, Horowhenua Kapiti $2.20. Assessment: Neither team available, but Wairarapa Bush needs to be careful ? Horowhenua is the form team of the past couple of weeks. There was early doubt about former Wanganui lock Tomasi Kedrabuka and hooker Rob Foreman. The loss of the former would seriously weaken Wai-Bush's lineout.
The match has a battle of its own, between Wai-Bush's coach peter Russell and Horowhenua's assistant coach Ross Bond. Russell had the better of Bond in a couple of Wellington Jubilee Cup finals ? the same could happen again. But this will be much closer than Wai-Bush's romp in the round-robin. Wai-Bush, 12 and under.