The system is expected to cover most of the North Island.
He said due to different models having varying predictions, there was “uncertainty about where the hotspots of rain and wind are going to be”.
Pawley said a “decent amount of cloud cover” and showers midweek were anticipated until high pressure took hold.
The daytime highs are expected to be 21C on Monday, 24C on Tuesday, 23C on Wednesday, 19C on Thursday and 22C on Friday.
Overnight lows of 13C on Monday, 15C on Tuesday, 13C on Wednesday, 11C on Thursday and 14C on Friday are forecast.
Monday is expected to feature scattered, isolated showers in inland areas. For coastal areas, cloudy conditions will give way to clear skies in the evening.
On Tuesday, conditions become more unpredictable but will likely include rain. High pressure will build on Thursday and may increase southerly and southwesterly winds before calming conditions into Friday.
MetService will post up-to-date predictions of thunderstorms and rain on its website over a 24- to 48-hour period.