Border can claim the Mitchell Cup by winning with at least four tries and hoping that Marist can either beat Kaierau or draw with them.
Kaierau only need to win this weekend to clinch the trophy for the fifth occasion during the new millennium and the first time since 2020.
A 22-12 loss to Marist at Spriggens Park last weekend, the first defeat against the city club since 2017, ended the trophy hopes of Taihape and kept Marist in Mitchell Cup contention.
Taihape were unbeaten with four victories (19 pts) in 2022, finishing eight points clear of runners-up Settlers Honey Ngamatapouri, but this year away losses to Marist and Border (5-14), including the absence of a few duck shooters last Saturday, wrecked the club’s Mitchell Cup hopes.
By contrast, Kaierau’s form has soared despite being pipped 15-12 at Taihape when Dane Whale landed a winning last-minute penalty goal.
Kaierau, who failed to win a single first-round match a year ago, have the home-field advantage this weekend.
Marist’s trophy hopes revolve around scalping Kaierau and hoping that Ruapehu can upset Border.
Kaierau, who were very lucky to hold off Border 18-15 on opening day - and then unlucky to be shaded in Taihape a week later - have benefitted from the return of a few quality former Heartland reps plus gains from the Ngamatapouri wind-up.
The Marist ranks have also been boosted by acquisitions from Ngamatapouri.
Saturday has all the makings of what promises to be a classic cup final between two evenly-matched squads who comfortably beat each other away from home last season.
Kaierau will be hell-bent on avenging a sizeable 41-10 home hiding at the hands of Marist last year, although a 32-19 second-round win at Spriggens Park helped clinch a semifinal berth.
This campaign both city teams have been performing well against the three country sides and on their current form could fully test recent champions Border and Taihape, come the cut-throat semifinals on July 1.
A revamped 2023 Kaierau squad impressed by starting well despite away fixtures against the two dominant teams of recent years - holding off Border on opening day and a week later looking set to retain the Challenge Shield with a draw at Taihape, until Dane Whale landed his last-minute penalty.
After a third-round bye, Kaierau scored nine tries to beat visiting Ruapehu 59-29 in a free-flowing first home game of the season a week ago.
After drawing the opening-day bye, Marist matched visiting Border’s two tries but 14 points from the boot of Craig Clare carried the champions to a flattering 24-15 victory.
Marist scored seven tries in whipping Ruapehu 43-12 at Ōhakune and last weekend claimed a second Northern Whanganui scalp, with elusive Jack O’Leary scoring two tries to topple Taihape, fittingly at Spriggens Park on Old Timers’ Day.
Marist are ahead of Kaierau by 23 victories to 22 in fixtures between the two clubs during the new century but the maroon and golds registered a runaway 100-8 victory in 2005 at Spriggens Park.
That season unbeaten Kaierau, who also thrashed Marton 133-0 in Rangitikei, collected a massive 948 points including 149 tries from 16 games at an average score of 59-6.
Marist have beaten Kaierau in two union-wide championship finals - 49-3 in 1996 and 12-8 in 2010 - with Kaierau successful 9-6 in 1997.
Test For Ruapehu:
Saturday will be a major test for six-times champions Ruapehu when Border visit Rochfort Park.
Ruapehu, back in Premier rugby after an absence of a year, strike an opponent shooting for a record four successive championship titles and will also be defending the Challenge Shield this weekend.
The teams have met 25 times since the Waverley club returned in 2011 from playing in the Taranaki union, with Border ahead 13 wins to 12 - including the last five in a row.
Ruapehu hold the highest score of 69-14 at Dallison Park in 2011 with Border winning 58-13 in 2020 and 58-17 in 2021, both at home.
They each have two successes in playoffs - Ruapehu 28-26 in the 2017 final and 29-27 in a home semifinal a year later, with Border winning Waverley semis in 2015 (34-13) and 2016 (34-15).
Although Ruapehu impressed by scoring five tries at Kaierau last weekend, Border will start as the favourites.
Senior Shield Clash
Marist Celtic defend the senior Challenge Shield against hosts Kaierau in what promises to be a close curtain-raiser at the Country Club on Saturday.
Kaierau, the only team to beat champions Celtic in 2022, have scored 198 points and conceded 46 (average score of 49-12) this year compared with Celtic’s 209 for and 40 against (average 52-10).
Last weekend Celtic coasted home 78-0 against ninth-placed McCrea Scanning Counties at Cooks Gardens while Kaierau were held to 25-19 by seventh-positioned Utiku Old Boys, who had earlier held Celtic to 19-15 in Taihape.
Kaierau currently lead Celtic 20 points to 19 after four of 11 qualifying rounds, with both teams unbeaten.
After beating visiting Celtic 40-10 in their first encounter last year, Kaierau were beaten twice away from home - 32-26 at the Racecourse and 44-8 in the championship semifinal at Spriggens Park.
The third- and fourth-positioned clubs this season - Black Bull Liquor Pirates (14 pts) and Tamatau Haha Rātana (13) - meet at 2.35pm at Spriggens Park . Fifth-placed Bennett’s Taihape (12 pts) play Castlecliff Hotel Mustangs (0) in the curtain-raiser.
There are home fixtures for Kelso Hunterville (11 pts) v Border (0), J J Walters Asphalt Marton (4 pts) v Utiku OB (11), and Counties (5 pts) v AGC Marist Knights (10).
