Russell Bell: Covid 19 coronavirus Delta outbreak - Baseballer's famous quotes sum up lockdown feelings

Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern and director general of health Dr Ashley Bloomfield speak at a Covid-19 press conference. Photo / Supplied

Opinion:

"It's deja vu all over again."

I am certain that when New York Yankees catcher Yogi Berra uttered these words he never thought people around the world would know him first for the quote rather than his Hall of Fame baseball career.

Likewise, he would have never contemplated that his quote would appropriately sum up the feelings of many New Zealanders as we find ourselves locked down in level 4 conditions once again.

Berra is also accredited with the phrase "it ain't over until it's over" and this has equally appropriate application to the situation we find ourselves in. And, as of the time of writing this piece, there are multiple "reckons" in the fourth estate and social media about how long we will remain confined to our bubbles.

However, the uncertainty must be unsettling for many especially those SMEs and hospitality businesses who can only start to adequately make back lost ground when we get back to level 1.

Uncertainty is bad for business and fuelling that uncertainty is local speculation and keeping an eye on happenings in Australia.

The term "experts" is thrown around like confetti, but I wonder if we are hearing from the right experts in terms of the current messaging. In times of uncertainty the public need reassurance, which is why whenever a particular "modeller" appears on TV, radio or in print I immediately leave the room or put down the iPad.

Throughout this entire pandemic I have yet to see a modeller's prediction reflect reality. And a lot more reality is what we need right now rather than speculation – especially for people's mental health. As a very wise meeting attendee put it to me last week - "Level 4 feels the same, the impact on our resilience feels different".

I don't know if Yogi Berra coined the phrase "gamechanger", but it appears to have replaced "tricky" in the national parlance. And it has to be said that it appears we are dealing with a different situation than last year, although other jurisdictions have "beaten the bug". But to beat it and sustain it there needs to be a change in approach – just as you would if things materially change around any strategy.

So mandatory scanning is now here (curiously not in all environments, which will make compliance confusing). It is something which I thought would be inevitable back in January but in a more "Bluetooth" form. It is however sensible, but yet another burden on business from the point of view of enforcement.

So, if business is having to move again to implement new controls for the betterment of all of us, I trust that similar revamps are on the way for MIQ and the border.

For example, recently politicians in Australia were theorising over "fleeting contact" (which still needs to be proven in the same way as proving whether Covid emerged from a lab which was training it to be more contagious). But Delta does appear to be more contagious and it is puzzling why, here in New Zealand, public walkways next to MIQ facilities are retained (let alone that a site next to a shopping mall continues to be utilised in this way).

But we are where we are, and we now sit back and wait this latest incursion out. The level 4 decision last week was the right one and the extent of the timeline back to level 1 is what we now await over the coming days and weeks.

These are not easy decisions and, apart from the long prologue to the 1pm announcement of case numbers and lockdown status, information grounded in reality will be largely available to us and this is what we actively should seek out.

We can make decisions, but I/we will be looking for more certainty in the days to come - particularly when the longer term narrative is also moving towards "living with the virus" rather than eliminating it (who says "post-Covid" any more?).

To quote Yogi again: "The future ain't what it used to be".