This far out it is impossible to call the general election, of course, but all evidence points to a drop in support for Labour from its 2020 high and a surge of voters perhaps intending to return to the right of centre much to the pleasure of National supporters.
Three Waters, the cost of living and inflation will bedevil Labour in coming months.
Whatever your opinion about the proposed Three Waters reforms, this is an issue splitting the electorate more than any other at the moment.
Nanaia Mahuta is simply not getting the cut-through she needs to explain why this will be advantageous to all ratepayers down the line.
It's not about co-governance, although that is a factor that really needs explaining to many, it's more about places with decent water systems having to be bundled into areas with not–so–good systems.
Ratepayers simply do not like paying rates but most understand they have to.
It's like tax, we begrudge it but we do it for the greater good. We feel insecure about where our hard-earned money will be going.
Inflation is an evil many of us will recall from the 1970s to 1990s, forever trying to catch up, wages never enough to cover rising costs.
It's back, not as bad, but back and many fear it. This of course feeds into the increased cost all Kiwis are facing across the board.
Unless Grant Robertson comes up with a plan that National cannot shoot holes in he is in trouble.
Mind you, National needs to explain how cutting taxes for the most wealthy is going to deal with inflation and all other evils it proscribes to this Labour Government.
On the local scene, a recent community survey was run by Whanganui District Council chief executive David Langford of 706 people.
More than 75 per cent or 489 people opposed any cross-subsidisation of any water services with any other area. A smallish survey, even by Whanganui standards, but it is telling.
That should be a wake-up call to Labour and our local MP Steph Lewis. Lewis totally gazumped the then sitting National MP Harete Hipango in 2020 by more than 8000 votes after Whanganui had been held by National for four terms.
Will Hipango chance her arm again as an electorate MP or remain quietly in the list place she has with National?
In my opinion, both MPs have had visibility issues during their time when compared to their predecessors Jill Pettis and Chester Borrows, who were both high-profile local figures in their day.
Is it still important that local MPs maintain high local profiles? Just seeing the MP out and about, chatting, doing local stuff, makes people feel good. Seeing them drive their family car with their name on it is always reassuring.
One local MP who enjoys a high and well-deserved profile is Te Pāti Māori MP Debbie Ngarewa-Packer.
She was snapping at Adrian Rurawhe's heels last election, only missing out by just over 1000 votes in Te Tai Hauāuru.
Packer-Ngarewa has a high local profile in South Taranaki and Whanganui due to her environmental and health work in her community.
She is highly respected by many non-Māori for her efforts to stop sea-bed mining.
With Rurawhe now Speaker of the House, it is possible that he will move to a list position more in keeping with his supposed neutrality as Speaker leaving Te Tai Haururu, an opportunity Ngarewa-Packer and TPM will delight in.
Rurawhe has brought dignity, patience, and calm to the Speaker's position, something that has been missing for some time. He will be a good Speaker. He has the respect and buy-in of all parties.
Rangitīkei will be up for grabs next year when long-time respected local MP Ian McKelvie steps down.
McKelvie is one of the MPs who are always there, always perhaps slightly in the background, but he is a solid operator who has had some high-profile spokesperson roles in National since he came to Parliament in 2011, especially around law and order and primary production.
So, locally, there could be interesting changes coming.
I will pick Rangitīkei to stay National and I will be brave and pick Te Tai Hauāuru will go to TPM in 2023.
It is a huge electorate but TPM is establishing itself with its own brand in Parliament.
