In 2019 the Whanganui Resource Recovery Centre (WRRC) made $320,000 by selling product, and received $200,000 from its council contract. It made a small loss of $12,000, which it can absorb.
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An added $112,000 this year, and a projected $184,000 in 2021, cannot be absorbed.
The council will be asked to increase its contract to cover the deficit - or it could decide to stop offering its only recycling service at the WRRC.
Businesses have been offloading more cardboard at the centre because their collection costs have gone up. The centre is considering charging them when they bring large amounts. Or it could ask people not to bring cardboard or paper any more.
The problem may be temporary, Vinsen has been told. After 2021 the market may improve.
Councils that provide kerbside recycling have been hit very hard by the change. It will cost Christchurch $3 million to $4 million this year, and Auckland $9 million. In Sydney two big recycling businesses have shut down.
A new facility recycling paper and cardboard in New Zealand would need 500,000 tonnes a year, and cost $200 million to build. That makes it a central government issue, Vinsen said.
The last upheaval in world recycling markets was when China stopped taking plastic. That situation has stabilised, with all the number 1, 2 and 5 plastics the WRRC collects now recycled in New Zealand.
Plastics numbered 3, 4, 6 and 7 represent only 4 per cent of what is dropped off, and the centre is considering asking people not to bring them.