Five of the world's largest democracies now have populist governments, claimed the Guardian last week, and proceeded to name four: the United States, India, Brazil and the Philippines. Which is the fifth? At various points it name-checks Turkey, Italy and the United Kingdom, but it never becomes clear which.
Gwynne Dyer: Populism thrives as jobs go
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Assembly-line jobs went first, because they are so easy to automate, turning the old industrial heartland of the United States into the "Rust Belt". Now retail jobs are disappearing.
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Populism is not an ideology. It's just a political technique, equally available to right-wingers, left-wingers, and those (like Trump) with no coherent ideology at all.
In this era, populism seems to partner best with right-wing nationalist ideologies like those of Jair Bolsonaro in Brazil, Viktor Orban in Hungary and the Brexiteers in England, but even now there are populist left-wing parties like Syriza in Greece and Podemos in Spain.
How does this tool work? It claims to be on the side of "ordinary people" and against a "corrupt elite" that exploits and despises them. It's light on policy and heavy on emotion, particularly the emotions of fear and hatred. It usually scapegoats minorities and/or foreigners, and it only works really well when people are angry about something.
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The anger is about the fact that the jobs are disappearing, and what's killing them is automation. The assembly-line jobs went first, because they are so easy to automate. That's what turned the old industrial heartland of the United States into the "Rust Belt".
What's going fast now are the retail jobs, killed by Amazon and its rivals: computers again.
The next big chunk to go will probably be the driving jobs, just as soon as self-driving vehicles are approved for public use. And so on, one or two sectors at a time, until by 2033 (according to the famous 2013 prediction by Oxford economist Carl Benedikt Frey) 47 per cent of US jobs will be lost to automation. And of course it won't stop there.
Why don't clever politicians like Hillary Clinton get that? Perhaps because they half-believe the fantasy statistics on employment put out by governments, like the official 3.7 per cent unemployment rate in the United States. A more plausible figure is American Enterprise Institute scholar Nicholas Eberstadt's finding in 2016 that 17.5 per cent of American men of prime working age were not working.
That's three-quarters of the way to peak US unemployment in the Great Depression of the 1930s, but it goes unnoticed because today's unemployed are not starving and they are not rioting.
You can thank the welfare states that were built in every developed country after World War II for that, but they are still very angry people — and they do vote. A lot of them vote for populists.
Populism thrives when a lot of people are angry or desperate or both. Donald Trump and people like him are not the problem. They are symptoms (and beneficiaries) of the problem — yet they dare not name it, because they have no idea what to do about automation.
Gwynne Dyer's new book is Growing Pains: The Future of Democracy (and Work).
