England's players celebrate after defeating Colombia in a penalty shoot out. Photo / AP Photo
NZME's award winning* football blog Goalmouth Scramble is back. Our rotating stable of football writers will offer daily hot takes on all the action from the World Cup in Russia. Today, Chris Rattue has some thoughts on why England won't win the World Cup.
We can't help it - every World Cup involves a massive focus on England.
England, England, England...
So what have we found out about the Three Lions before the World Cup quarter-final clash in Samara on Sunday? (Oh yes, with a bit about opponents Sweden thrown in, for the sake of balance):
1) England haven't got a hope of winning the World Cup, not on that performance against Colombia. If England keep playing like that, there is no such thing as the soft side of the draw for them.
2) Phones. Tablets. Triumphalism. Pressure. There's probably a lot of self-deprecating humour in the "It's Coming Home" reaction from the England public so far.
Then again, the Guardian quoted a fan as viewing the penalty shootout victory over Colombia as an omen: "...we win on penalties then we can go all the way."
England's players will not be immune to this pressure and aren't good enough not to freeze. They had the game in the bag against ordinary Colombia and almost blew it.
3) Which brings us to the core issue: the England squad.
Under likeable Gareth Southgate they are very likeable. But apart from Harry Kane, it is actually one of England's weaker World Cup units.
They don't have much of a midfield - and certainly nobody in the Paul Scholes, Bryan Robson, Paul Gascoigne, Steven Gerrard, Frank Lampard class.
4) From what we've seen so far, England's best chance of winning the World Cup is actually via penalty shootouts. That's a big ask.
5) If it looks as though England are dominating the quarter-final in Samara, don't be fooled.
Sweden happily play football without the football. Their possession figures in the tournament so far are Korea 52%, Germany 29%, Mexico 35% and Switzerland 37%.
England pretend they like to have the ball and don't do much with it. Sweden are under no such illusions.
6) England's shootout triumph over Colombia was their first in four World Cup attempts — there are people wandering remote deserts who have heard that by now. What those nomads may not know is that Sweden won its only shootout over Romania in a 1994 quarter-final.
7) England have yet to play a really good side at full strength desperate to beat them. They are being lulled into a false sense of security. Sweden had to beat a good Swiss side, and topped a pretty tough group.
8) As for formations...England coach Southgate opted to go the wing-back way when he took over, playing three at the back. Sweden will meet this with a 4-4-2 system which aims to contain, and then make the odd break forward.
With cocky striker Zlatan Ibrahimovic having retired from international football, Sweden's best players tend to be defensively minded which will leave very few openings for England's limited attack.
9) Swedish coach Janne Andersson has a reputation for building team unity/spirit. He can also be a fierce combatant, putting fire into Sweden's traditionally cool temperament. England are strong favourites to beat Sweden, but it's is hard to work out why. They have played 24 times, with England winning eight, Sweden seven.
10) Vladimir Putin. The Russian boss is having a superb tournament.
Visiting fans say what a great place Russia is, the tournament is running like clockwork, while predicted problems such as hooliganism and racism have not arisen.
At the leadership/political level, the relationship between England and Russia is frosty — the idea that England could ruin Putin's party is surely unthinkable.
11) Then again... fate lies poised to dish up a political and topical semifinal between England and Russia.
There are often added storylines in England's World Cup adventures (thinking Argentina here).
On second thoughts, let's plump for an England victory over Sweden, with Russia to upset Croatia. That really would give this tournament everything.
Still can't see this England team actually winning the World Cup though.
*Goalmouth Scramble's "award" was more of an inter-company acknowledgement in an email from 2012.
Previously, on Goalmouth Scramble:
Damien Venuto: Why the world might want England to lose
Steven Holloway: 10 thoughts on the World Cup, and why Neymar is a d**k
Damien Venuto: The villains of the World Cup
Joel Kulasingham: The 11 All Blacks who would dominate* the FIFA World Cup
Chris Rattue: Bring on the penalty shootouts
Niall Anderson: So, uh, which of these World Cup teams are actually good?
Steven Holloway: Funbag: Messi and World Cup conspiracy theories
Michael Burgess: Why I'm missing Sepp Blatter
Cam McMillan: The far too early second round projections
David Leggat: A few things you need to know about the World Cup
Damien Venuto: Messi - The Argentinean Andrew Mehrtens?
Cam McMillan: Why Brazil will (and won't) win the World Cup
Niall Anderson: The best (and worst) games to watch
Chris Rattue: Funny footballs and goalkeepers
Chris Rattue: The big World Cup questions
Steven Holloway: Fancy a punt? The World Cup's best bets