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Home / Whanganui Chronicle

Covid-19 Omicron outbreak: Cases surge past 11,000 and more than 700 in hospital, 19 virus-related deaths

NZ Herald
12 Jul, 2022 01:24 AM6 mins to read

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The country gets set for a downpour, Auckland smash and grabs leave customers in shock and a movement to lower the voting age goes to court in the latest New Zealand Herald headlines. Video / NZ Herald

The country is "definitely" battling a second wave of Covid infections, with more 11,000 community cases confirmed today, an expert says.

There are 11,548 new community cases reported today - but Covid modeller Michael Plank says the true number will be higher.

The Ministry of Health reported a further 19 Covid-related deaths.

Of today's deaths one was from the Auckland region, three were from Bay of Plenty, one was from Taranaki, two were from Whanganui, one was from Hawkes Bay, four were from MidCentral, one was from Lakes, three were from the Wellington region, two were from Canterbury, and one was from Southern.

One was aged in their 40s, two were in their 60s, three were in their 70s, five were in their 80s and eight were aged over 90. Of these people, 10 were women and nine were men.

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The total number of virus-related deaths is now 1707.

The Ministry of Health says it's closely monitoring the "continued increase in Covid-19 positive hospitalisations as part of our ongoing review and updating of the response to the current community outbreak".

Cabinet ministers met yesterday to discuss the Covid-19 situation but have not yet revealed any actions or decisions made as a result.

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There are 710 people in hospital with the virus, including 17 in intensive care.

Those in hospital are being treated at Northland: 16; Waitematā: 141; Counties Manukau: 59; Auckland: 85; Waikato: 58; Bay of Plenty: 36; Lakes: 9; Hawke's Bay: 25; MidCentral: 26; Whanganui: 13; Taranaki: 13; Tairawhiti: 4; Wairarapa: 11; Capital & Coast: 37; Hutt Valley: 27; Nelson Marlborough: 16; Canterbury: 78; West Coast: 2; South Canterbury: 17; Southern: 37.

The average age of current hospitalisations is 64.

Health officials have reiterated the importance of continuing to wear a mask in indoor settings.

"The more layers of protection we put in place - such as mask wearing, vaccinations, and staying home when sick - the more we reduce the risk of spreading respiratory viruses," the ministry said.

'Hospitalisations are rising sharply now'

Covid-19 modeller Dr Michael Plank told the Herald that New Zealand was "definitely in a second wave".

"It's got potential to be quite a serious one. Hospitalisations are rising sharply now and that's concerning because the health system was already stressed with winter illness and flu."

Plank said the actual number of infections would be higher than the ministry's tally as not everyone reported their positive result.

The real number to watch was hospitalisations, and the age at which they're occurring (today's average age is 64).

"It's difficult to predict what the peak will be. The increase in the average age is the biggest concern – that means even if cases don't get as high as they did in March, it's possible the number of hospitalisations will increase."

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Plank said mask use would remain critical for flattening the curve of the outbreak, and even though New Zealand was relatively good at wearing masks, there was still room for improvement.

"We are probably still better at using masks here than many places who I think have fallen out of the habit.

"That's not to say there isn't room for improvement because there is and mask will be crucially important for flattening the wave."

Yesterday, there were 8395 new community Covid cases and modellers say this figure could reach 20,000 in the coming weeks and will likely mean many more deaths.

As of yesterday, the seven-day rolling average of community cases was 9279 - up from 7053 at this time last week.

Health officials reported a further 17 Covid-related deaths yesterday. Five were aged in their 70s, five were in their 80s and seven were aged over 90. Of these people, 10 were women and seven were men. All 17 deaths occurred in the past 13 days.

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Meanwhile, 689 people were fighting the virus in hospital yesterday, including 13 in intensive care.

The patients are being treated in Northland: 13; Waitematā: 137; Counties Manukau: 49; Auckland: 83; Waikato: 59; Bay of Plenty: 33; Lakes: 10; Hawke's Bay: 27; MidCentral: 28; Whanganui: 16; Taranaki: 13; Tairawhiti: 4; Wairarapa: 11; Capital & Coast/Hutt: 68; Nelson Marlborough: 12; Canterbury/West Coast: 77; South Canterbury: 20; Southern: 29.

The seven-day rolling average of hospitalisations is 582 - up from 420 a week ago. The ministry said it was closely monitoring the increase in hospitalisations.

Rising hospital numbers underlined the importance of "everybody doing the basics well" to help New Zealand get through winter in good shape, the ministry said.

"In particular, people should stay home if they are unwell, take a rapid antigen test (RAT) and upload the result on MyCovidRecord, and isolate if positive or while still symptomatic.

"And now is the time to ensure you are up to date with your Covid-19 vaccinations, including those who are eligible for a second booster dose, as well as having a flu vaccination, which is free for many people."

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Case numbers could rise pretty steeply in the next couple of weeks.
This is just a sum of two exponentials - use with caution! - one for declining BA.2 and one for growing BA.5 with BA.5/BA.2 ratio doubling every ~ 6 days estimated from ESR genome data pic.twitter.com/W9Img4VBLp

— Michael Plank (@MichaelPlankNZ) July 7, 2022

The demographic make-up of those affected by this wave was expected to be markedly different.

More than 90 per cent of infections in the first wave involved people under 60 and, since then, the case distribution has steadily moved to older groups.

"Case rates in the over-70s are already more than double what they were at the peak of the March wave, so that really shows how much the age distribution has shifted," said Professor Michael Plank, of Covid-19 Modelling Aotearoa.

The proportion of infected people older than 60 has also jumped from less than 10 per cent in March, to 25 per cent now.

"We're still in the relatively early stages of this wave – and to be double that level that we were in March is a cause for concern."

Statistically, people aged over 70 are known to be about six times more at risk of hospitalisation with Covid-19 than younger adults.

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Ministry of Health data showed that people in their 20s and 30s each accounted for about 17 per cent of Covid-19 cases to date since the start of the pandemic, compared with about 6 per cent and 5 per cent respectively for people in their 60s and those over 70.

Yet, people aged over 60 have made up nearly half of hospitalisations – and about 40 per cent of Covid-19 cases requiring intensive care.

Of 720 deaths where Covid-19 has been the underlying cause, people younger than 60 accounted for 41, compared with 617 among over-70s.

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