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Home / Whanganui Chronicle / Business

A strategy best when market dips

By Iain Hyndman
Whanganui Chronicle·
10 Oct, 2012 08:22 PM3 mins to read

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The only upside to changing stock markets is the opportunity they create for buyers and sellers.

While it is not always enjoyable watching livestock markets go down, it's accepted that markets never stay the same and they must go down to go up and both ways creates opportunity.

Wanganui livestock agent David Cotton, from River City Livestock, reckons that's the fun part.

"Thinking strategy and planning how to stay ahead of the game you must make the most of your opportunities.

"I see farmers do well in both up and down markets. They focus on the things they can control - stocking rates, fertiliser, timing of their livestock sales and purchases using contracts.

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"They don't worry about things they have no control over - how high the dollar is, weather is it too wet or too dry - they have a plan in place, a trigger point to make things happen," Mr Cotton said.

In the cattle market, schedules are under pressure to come back. A high dollar and lack of spring feed, especially in the Waikato and Hawkes Bay, have resulted in large numbers of cattle killed over the past month.

"Local trade has been as high as export ox prices came off the boil this week, but back 10cents/kg with further drops likely. The store cattle market has stayed strong and as reported earlier a lack of numbers are having a positive affect for vendors. Last week's Feilding sale had half the cattle numbers than this time last year," he said.

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Very good yearling steers (charalais and angus) made $950 and $932 ($2.64/kg and $2.74/kg).

The medium to long term outlook for beef, Mr Cotton said, is bright from what he reads.

"The drought in the US is pushing grain prices up and in turn is likely to send the cost of feed at feedlots skyward, which should have a positive affect on our NZ beef prices."

A huge range in lamb schedules is occurring as the end of the season approaches.

"I have seen $5.50/kg to $6/kg being paid on the spot market, but then of course there are those that took the opportunity to contract lambs at $6.75/kg giving them an additional $26.25 per head on a 21kg lamb.

My understanding is there are farmers out there that also took to opportunity to lock in an excellent schedule for this year's prime lambs. Store lamb prices are moving south as finishers run out of time to finish lambs before the plough turns over the land. Teeth always become an issue at this time of the year.

"The store lamb price has fallen as excepted over the past month from over $3/kg down to $2.77/kg at last week's sale, while 37kg lambs are well back on last year $3.80/kg. Mutton prices are well back also from last year's $4.60/kg with the average price around $3.40/kg,' Mr Cotton said.

Many ewes with lambs at foot have been traded over the past few weeks for a couple of reasons.

"The lack of spring feed and a high percentage of ewe hoggets in-lamb is forcing farmers to make more room for them. The better end of this market is with ewes that will do more that one year and lambs that have been docked. They have sold from $70-$75 with more medium types at $64-$70."

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