Horse racing: Punters should be on weather watch ahead of Rotorua feature

Lux Libertas could be the big winner if the rain falls ahead of Rotorua's best race. Photo / Kenton Wright

Lance O’Sullivan can see four different pathways to the winner’s circle after tomorrow’s $100,000 ITM Stakes at Rotorua but he admits he isn’t sure which one is the quickest way there.

O’Sullivan and training partner Andrew Scott have four chances in the fillies and mares Group 3 race, one of the last opportunities for most in the 1400m feature to chase black type this season.

The field is deep and even and those words could also describe the Wexford Stable’s assault, with Karmin Line, Kelly Coe, Lux Libertas and the favourite, Tomodachi.

“I think any one of them could win without surprising us but all for different reasons,” O’Sullivan told the Herald.

“Karmin Line is the defending champ and beat La Crique here last season so clearly she can win again.

“Kelly Coe may not have a great form line but she worked as good on Tuesday as I have ever seen her work and she could be our upsetter.

“Lux Libertas has been going great ... and if the rain which they say could come arrives then she might end up being our best chance.

“And Tomodachi is obviously very talented. I am sure most people saw what she did when flying home for third at Trentham last start and her sectionals that day were excellent.”

With those four stablemates and genuine depth across their rivals, the weather could play a deciding role.

Lux Libertas is unbeaten in four starts on heavy tracks yet still had the class to split La Crique and a race rival tomorrow in Marotiri Molly in the Auckland Breeders Stakes on a good track last November.

She has been running well in her last two starts and it won’t take much of the forecast rain to tip Arawa Park into the heavy range – then maybe she would become the horse to beat.

Drier would be better for Karmin Line and probably even Tomodachi, who, while she won her only start on a heavy track, has the raw class of a mare who may prefer a fair fight rather than a slog.

Kelly Coe has won in all types of conditions so could be the Swiss Army knife of the O’Sullivan/Scott chances.

The track conditions could also play a key role in whether the draws end up good or bad tomorrow.

Marotiri Molly is a high-class mare suited by the weight-for-age scale and with the natural speed to use her ace draw.

On a mid-range track, she has a lot in her favour but if it gets heavy and the inside is messy later in the day, her chances may come with more question marks.

Earlier in the meeting, O’Sullivan nominates Desert Mystic (Race 5, No 2) as one of the better chances of their big representation.

“He started in the Easter Handicap last time and drops back to Rating 75 grade so has to be a good chance.”

Michael Guerin wrote his first nationally published racing articles while still in school and started writing about horse racing and the gambling industry for the Herald as a 20-year-old in 1990. He became the Herald‘s Racing Editor in 1995 and covers the world’s biggest horse racing carnivals.