Trackside NZ Derby: Millions winning filly Orchestral tuned in for Derby

Orchestral was an impressive winner at the Karaka Millions. Photo / Trish Dunell

The $1 million Trackside NZ Derby has emerged as the most likely major New Zealand target for exceptional three-year-old filly Orchestral.

But a start in the classic will likely depend on her performance in the Avondale Guineas next week as her connections also eye a glamour double they won with Prowess last season.

Orchestral has moved to the top of our three-year-old filly ranks with her demolition job in the $1.5million TAB Karaka Millions at Ellerslie on January 27 and she is favourite for the NZ Derby, Oaks and the Vinery Stakes in Sydney.

Last season trainers Roger James and Robert Wellwood won two of those races with Prowess, the Karaka Three-Year-Old and the Vinery at Rosehill but allowed Prowess to miss the Derby.

She instead claimed the Ellis Classic at Te Rapa and the Bonecrusher NZ Stakes against the older horses but while Orchestral has some similar goals the Derby at Ellerslie on March 2 looms largest.

“It is not totally decided yet but that is the direction we are thinking,” co-trainer Wellwood told the Herald.

“She will go to the Avondale Guineas next week and if she races as well as we expect over the 2100m there then the Derby is likely.

“We also have the Bonecrusher a week later (March 9) as a back up if we think she is better at 2000m than 2400m but she is a good breathing horse and we think she can get 2400m.”

The Cambridge trainers would then love to take Orchestral to Sydney for the Vinery, giving her a shot at an Australian group 1 success which would be so valuable for her future broodmare value.

Orchestral doesn’t actually have any New Zealand group 1 black type yet as her connections opted to bypass the Levin Classic last month to target the Karaka Millions, which ultimately proved to be a masterstroke.

“We are kind of working backwards from the Vinery because that Australian group 1 is worth so much,” says Wellwood.

“That is no disrespect to the Derby as that is a race everybody wants to win and we would love to get it too.

“So that is her main target here but just in case something goes wrong or she seems better at 2000m we have the option of the Bonecrusher a week later.”

That all but rules out of the NZ Oaks at Trentham in March 16 for which Orchestral is the $4 favourite and the TAB market for that race is likely to re-shape enormously in the next few days.

Co-trainer Lance O’Sullivan has already stated their outstanding filly Molly Bloom, who was luckless in the Karaka Millions, will almost certainly miss the Oaks.

And third favourite Mary Shan is no certainty to head to the Oaks either, trainer Andrew Forsman saying he will wait to see how she races in the Ellis Classic at Te Rapa this Saturday before deciding her main autumn aim.

Another well in the Oaks market who is liekly to to miss the race is Certainly.

The exciting filly drops back from 1600m to a MAAT 1200m at Te Rapa on Saturday and could be sent to Te Akau’s Victorian stable to chase some black type there rather than be asked to extend out to the 2000-2400m fillies trips over the next six weeks.

Michael Guerin wrote his first nationally published racing articles while still in school and started writing about horse racing and the gambling industry for the Herald as a 20-year-old in 1990. He became the Herald’s Racing Editor in 1995 and covers the world’s biggest horse racing carnivals.