Prison population exceeds 10,000 for first time in four years

The number of people in New Zealand’s prisons is higher than 10,000 for the first time in more than four years.

It comes alongside the Government progressing policies designed to impose tougher consequences on those who break the law and the allocation of funding to expand prison capacity.

However, the man in charge of the country’s prisons says many of those policies are yet to take effect and the recent increase in prisoners reflects a more “conservative” approach the public supports when addressing crime.

On October 30, the total prison population rose to 10,043, increasing from 9982 the week prior. That was higher than Ministry of Justice projections, which had predicted the population would be about 9750 on November 1.

Waikato's Waikeria Prison is set to increase its capacity to 1865 over the coming five years. Photo / Department of Corrections

The population last breached 10,000 in early 2020 before it fell to its lowest point – about 7500 at the end of 2021 – before it began rising steadily.

The fall from a peak of 10,820 prisoners in March 2018 came after the Labour Party pledged to cut the prison population by 30% over 15 years when it came into office after the 2017 election, when there were 10,400 prisoners.

Corrections Minister Mark Mitchell had long criticised Labour’s work to decrease the prison population. In 2023, the three parties of the current coalition Government all campaigned on imposing tougher consequences on offenders, through the likes of a new version of Three Strikes and expanding anti-gang laws.

Corrections Minister Mark Mitchell has long criticised Labour's approach to the prison population. Photo / Mark Mitchell

However, Corrections custodial services commissioner Leigh Marsh told the Herald he believed the 1000-prisoner increase from this time last year wasn’t directly linked to policy change, noting that many of the Government’s new laws hadn’t yet been implemented.

He suggested a more conservative “societal will” was a factor.

“I think there has been a response in line with what the Government is proposing within policy change around, I don’t want to use the words ‘tough on crime’ ... but more of a conservative view to decision-making around how we deal with individuals that break the law, that cause harm, that put other people at risk.

“We’ve gone through a significantly traumatic event of a pandemic, we’ve had an economy that has contracted [and] I think that the tolerance for [criminal behaviour] changes somewhat and I think that’s what we’ve observed over the last year.”

On the population increase, Marsh said he had expected to breach 10,000 and suspected the total number would float above and below that in the coming months.

“More people tend to come in during summer months ... we’re definitely going to dip before Christmas, we always see that, so we’ll drop below 10,000 as we go into Christmas but we’ll jump up again above 10,000 just after Christmas.”

Corrections has about 1000 beds as a buffer. Photo / Greg Bowker

Marsh was confident Corrections could absorb the increase. He said Corrections was adequately staffed to accommodate 10,500 prisoners and had about another 1000 beds as a buffer.

“We may get up to 10,100 by the end of the financial year and we’ll have, at that point, around 11,000 beds open so we’ve got that capacity there, we’re comfortable with that.”

The Ministry of Justice projected the prison population to increase to 10,613 in June, 2029 and then 11,317 in June, 2034.

Citing his 20 years of experience, Marsh believed Corrections was more prepared than ever to handle the rise.

He referenced the 600 beds set to become available at Waikato’s Waikeria Prison in June – an increase funded by the Labour-led Government in 2018.

The current Government had further funded Waikeria’s expansion this year to become an 1865-person mega-prison by adding another 810 beds – a plan proposed under a former National Government until it was scotched by Labour, which chose the 600-bed uplift.

Corrections had also sought to use the Government’s new fast-track consenting legislation to upgrade Pāremoremo Prison in Auckland so it could house roughly double its current 681-prisoner capacity.

Marsh said the upgrade was one example of how Corrections was seeking to improve ageing infrastructure, acknowledging “prisoners are becoming more complex”.

“We know that alcohol and drug dependency is an issue, we know traumatic brain injury and intellectual disability exists quite a bit within our population, so we’re building facilities that are conducive to responding to those needs.”

Adam Pearse is a political reporter in the NZ Herald Press Gallery team, based at Parliament. He has worked for NZME since 2018, covering sport and health for the Northern Advocate in Whangārei before moving to the Herald in Auckland, covering Covid-19 and crime.