Private Eye winning at Rosehill. Photo / Ashlea Brennan
Of the hundreds of quotes trainer Peter Moody has dutifully uttered since I Wish I Win became New Zealand’s first rep in the A$20million Everest the most telling may be a throwaway comment.
Moody is an Australian but he was one of New Zealand’s most loved trainers well before I Wish I Win took up the TAB Trackside spot to officially fly the Kiwi flag at Randwick tomorrow.
He and affable owner Mark Chittck are just as crucial to Kiwis getting behind I Wish I Win tomorrow as odds boosts or the local breeding industry benefits but now the mad dash for cash is almost upon us Moody has business to take care of.
That business may have gotten a little tougher after I Wish I Win drew barrier 1 in the Everest, which sounds great but could see him three back on the inner and with equine roadblocks around him when he should be going through his gears.
Overpass, the likely leader, has drawn barrier 2 so shouldn’t that put I Wish I Wish in the trail, from where the T J Smith winner would only need a gap to unleash his explosive sprint?
The issue is that is not his normal racing pattern and rival jockeys who spoke to the Herald tend to think Overpass will go so hard enough for at least the first 200m to create a gap for one of his rivals to get across to the trail and then I Wish I Win faces being three back on the rail.
Put that to Moody and you get maybe the quote that may ultimately sums up the Everest 2023.
“Nobody is going to be doing him any favours,” says Moody casually.
Superstar jockey James McDonald says the difference between Sydney racing and easier schools is that the best jockeys are so good they put you in positions you don’t want to be in.
There are a lot of great jockeys in the Everest tomorrow and they all want I Wish I Win crammed up against the inside rail until it is too late to matter.
If he does get tucked away the condensed finishing margins in the major lead-up sprints to this year’s Everest suggest this is an even crop and the more even a field the less likely are large gaps.
And with likely leader Overpass not a horse who tends to leave the rail under pressure don’t expect too many holes late up the inside wear angels fear to tread.
Of course none of this may matter, I Wish I Win may trail or the gaps may come and the fairytale of the ugly duckling yearling who grew into a national racing hero may come true.
But both scenarios are worth factoring into your punting cause it is a game of the head not the heart.
For some Kiwi punters the Everest is a question of: if not I Wish I Win, then who?
The answer to that may ultimately depend on tempo, gaps and who gets their head of steam up at the right time, possibly even trailing in the three-wide line.
You can make logical cases for last season’s runner-up Private Eye, his near-unbeaten stablemate Think About It, hard finishers like Buenos Nachos and Hawaii Five Oh and even the 3-year-olds Cylinder and Shinzo.
Overpass could be an uncontested leader and they always worth a second look in sprints while Espiona has Waller and Bowman back together again. So almost any one of the 12 starters could win without stunning.
But I Wish I Win may be flat out the best horse in this Everest. And the best story. He just might need the best luck.
Addington’s big questions
R2: Is Paramount Kiwi good enough to beat the southerners? Yes, but his $2.20 is too short. If he gets to $2.50 back him otherwise Look To Da Stars is better value.
R5: Can Le Major lead and control the race? He should be able to and that makes him the horse to beat with Chase A Dream the cover bet.
R6: Will Akuta win? Yes, unless something goes wrong. The danger should be B D Joe.
R7: Is Coastal Babe the best filly in NZ? On what she has shown so far, yes. And just as importantly should have the gate speed to cross to the lead early so clear top pick.
R8: Who has the better chance, Merlin or Don’t Stop Dreaming? All depends on the start. If Merlin can trail or even get off early to lead he can beat Don’t Stop Dreaming even though the latter may be the better horse.
R9: Bolt For Brilliance vs Muscle Mountain, who you got? Bolt was brilliant in his comeback last week but if Muscle Mountain behaves (big IF) he might get him for raw speed. Standing start manner the key to this one.
Sir Peter Vela backing different horse
The bosses of New Zealand racing have eyes only for I Wish I Win in tomorrow’s $A20 million Everest but one of the most successful and powerful men in the industry will be yelling for a different horse.
Sir Peter Vela is owner of New Zealand Bloodstock but has won many great races, including the Melbourne and Caulfield Cups (Ethereal) and this year’s Golden Slipper as a shareholder in Shinzo.
So while I Wish I Win will be the “New Zealand” horse in the Everest, Vela has a shot at adding the new glamour race of Australian racing to his incredible list of racing achievements, a list which could grow even before the Everest starts.
Less than two hours earlier, Vela also owns the second favourite Pearl of Alsace in the $450,000 Livamol Classic at Hastings.
“She is a lovely mare and I own her and her dam Irion so a Group 1 win would be a huge result,” says Vela.
“Breeding Group 1 winners is the pinnacle for any breeder and for mares it is worth a lot more long-term than the stake of any race so I’d love to see her get it.”
Pearl of Alsace is having only start No 9 tomorrow but she looks a genuine weight-for-age horse in a race where half the field is yet to be proven at that level.
She looks set to get the good track co-trainer Shaun Ritchie wants but a concern could be barrier 1 as the Hastings rail will be out the same 3m point it was for the last meeting there and she could face traffic concerns getting to better ground to make her run. Still, she has the X-factor to win, especially if the expected better track conditions bring favourite Mustang Valley back to the field.
Less than two hours later comes the far bigger mountain to climb and Vela says while having Shinzo in the Everest in Sydney is exciting, it has never been a bucket list race.
“It is not a race I have thought about much because it hasn’t been around that long and obviously it is very hard to get into,” says Vela.
“But this is a good horse and, although I have shares in him, I stay out of the decision making, that is run and run very well by the Coolmore boys and of course Chris [Waller, trainer].”
Shinzo is part of the Coolmore colts syndicate, which basically sees some of the industry’s biggest names pool millions of dollars to buy well-bred colts at the yearling sales in the hope at least one is a stallion prospect.
It gives them the financial firepower and expertise to buy almost any yearling they want. And it only takes only one like last season’s hugely successful racehorse, now sire, Home Affairs to cover the initial outlay and the remaining horses become bonuses.
As a good-looking, beautifully-bred Golden Slipper winner Shinzo is already guaranteed a stallion career but if he could add the Everest he would become one of the more valuable racehorses in the world.
“Chris [Waller] is great with his communication and he tells us the horse is good to go,” says Vela.
Pearl of Alsace is the $4 second favourite for the Livamol while Shinzo is rated a $15 chance in the Everest at Randwick.
Christian Lio-Willie has been called into the squad as cover.