Incoming Prime Minister Christopher Luxon has done what no one else has previously managed in New Zealand politics – he has been elected to the top job after just one term in Parliament.
What a statement of intent. National and Act with 61 seats combined - in the words of the late Sir Michael Cullen, who will be shuddering in his grave, “Eat that. You lost, we won, it goes.”
But it’s eat that after just one term in Parliament for Luxon. No one even contemplates that. Usually, it is head down, bum up and zip it. That’s a normal first term for a new politician.
But Luxon’s rise is anything but normal. He never got the chance to go slow nor did he want to. Luxon went in there with this result top of mind. He had planned for 2026 to be his year, but asked to front, Luxon was happy to lead.
It has come three years earlier than he’d put in his memo to self but he is an ambitious, quick learner and if it helps turn the tide of despondency then that’s a good start. We shouldn’t talk down or mock people who wish to be successful and wealthy. It is something to admire, and attacks on Luxon being a rich, white guy failed. Surely, the unions and Labour learned when they tried the same tired tactic on John Key. Give it up.
But Luxon getting the Big Boss job so soon makes his ascent more impressive than Key, as well as Jacinda Ardern. Both had served longish apprenticeships in Parliament and faced fewer demands than Luxon was presented with. First, he had to revive a divided and bitter caucus, which can take years. He did so in weeks and whatever riot act he read, it worked.
All of that at the same time as getting the public to like and, more importantly, trust him. Not a small job, and he has struggled at times. Until yesterday, it seemed a big chunk of voters were unconvinced.
That is why Winston Peters and New Zealand First came back into the mix because people weren’t sure about Luxon – and even less so about him and Act’s David Seymour running around the Beehive unchecked.
Did a new, right-wing government need to be checked by Peters? Yes, possibly. Did his government need an experienced old hand? Probably.
Is National light on experience? Yes. Its top five have not chaired a select committee at Parliament let alone been inside the Cabinet room before.
Peters got back in because of doubts over National – its team, its direction and ideas, of which there aren’t that many. Of those that have seen the light of day, all seem familiar. National actually got there with a change mandate but it is unclear just how and what they will do to cut inflation, make public services better and deliver a stronger economy.
There is no magic bullet. The public service can be underwhelming: slow and frustrating. Luxon will find outcomes much harder to achieve than perhaps he did in the corporate world.
Is there a secret agenda? No, according to Luxon, but things can deviate and times can call for mini-budgets alongside a change of approach.
For me, National has been running its 2008 campaign all over again with a different group of actors, who, quite frankly, aren’t nearly as good as the originals - John Key, Bill English and Stephen Joyce. But they are doing okay at the plagiarism. Behind the scenes the puppets who run National are the same ones who were there under Key, so why mess with a successful formula?
Luxon may need Peters when the numbers finally shake down, but it’s unlikely. Everyone is hoping Peters isn’t needed, except, of course, the voters with memory-loss issues who backed Peters. They can’t dial back past 2020, and 2017 is so unfamiliar to them that Peters got their support again - brain fade is a terrible thing.
Without Peters’ influence, the government stands proudly centre-right and unchecked by the Peters’ hyperbole, populism and latest policy idea. And, let’s not forget, whatever he is thinking at the given time. They should keep him at arm’s length, and if he’s not needed, keep it that way.
Luxon is fresh and owes Peters exactly nothing. He’s been toxic, unhelpful and mainly an arch enemy of National’s for 20 years now. Luxon is under no pressure to even say “Hi” in the corridors, although he strikes me as a “Hi, hi, it’s me,” kind of guy.
This government always intended to sit as a centre-right response to Labour’s six years. Peters made a solid challenge to place his party as the centre anchor to keep the radical stuff out of the mix but he fell just short. He is a political monster in the way he always manages to return.
However, Peters would have been trouble from the get-go. He wanted to sink National’s tax cuts - although National’s sell job on its own policies almost achieved that itself.
So, on the numbers as they stand today, Peters is in opposition, flanked by two pet hates in the resurgent Greens, who found there is a desire for left-wing policies like capital gains taxes, and Te Pāti Māori, who have done well and spanked Labour, which will hurt.
The Greens were so chuffed with their haul they couldn’t stop applauding themselves.
I wonder if they have realised they’re now in Opposition with a weak and recovering Labour Party?
And old Uncle Winston has turned up to stay not just for a couple of days - but three years. He’ll be 81 at the next election, although he’s well preserved and has the energy and poise on his feet that Joe Biden can only dream of.
National should just smile and enjoy the image of Peters alongside the Left - he said he wouldn’t work with them and now he has to – barring some last-minute changes to the numbers.
Without Peters, Luxon can plough ahead with his agenda, which isn’t exactly full yet. But doing it as a cosy twosome will be much more palatable than having a constant political flea in the ear.
That said, Peters’ return is Houdini like. Most pensioners his age might be struggling with the instructions and wondering where they left their Gold Card while Peters is still involved in writing his own legacy, which last night got even bigger and more impressive.
As for Labour, it copped a public intent on ram-raiding every last bit of them. Red seats, where red flags rather than people might once have stood and still won, turned blue last night because the party didn’t give them a reason to stay red.
Labour was negative from the time it woke up until it went to bed: attack, attack, attack, and it didn’t work. Ask the Irish about that - they understand what that means.
Labour was decimated due to years of incompetence and the very real pain of the cost-of-living crisis that it made worse by spending like numbskulls for six years. It slapped the petrol tax back on at the start of the campaign, and whoever decided that was a smart thing should face one of National’s boot camps as punishment.
That it wasn’t responsible for inflation never washed. It lost seats that have been chained to Labour for years and this loss will hurt for months to come.
Chippy should stay on, though. He is far from washed up and he spoke well. He is a credit to his parents and I reckon had Ardern stood, she would have got a similar result. Upper Hutt needs him for longer.
But Morgan Godfrey said it so well on TV One last night. When Luxon took over, he looked like a winner. Not a boy doing the job or a divisive so and so with baggage. He came in fresh and shiny. And he’s never looked back.
He starts with a clean slate and a party he wants to work with. Let’s hope Peters stays marooned on the sidelines. There will be plenty of time for him to bark, as Luxon must now turn the many slogans into wins that make a difference for people.
Luxon should not recall Trevor Mallard from his diplomatic post in Dublin. Make the Irish suffer just a bit longer.
