Donna Logan
Rising Romance is the filly to look out for in today's A$1 million Australian Oaks in Sydney.
The New Zealand filly is peaking at the right time to trouble the favourite, ex-New Zealander Lucia Valentina.
Lucia Valentina has all the plus pointers to make her the $2.60 favourite, but there are plenty of counter arguments in favour of Rising Romance, who is at $6.
When Lucia Valentina won the Storm Queen Stakes last start and Rising Romance finished 6.4 lengths away in fourth, she had the benefit of a lead-up race two weeks earlier.
Rising Romance was coming off a five-week break, during which she had a foot problem which must have cost her at least some training.
Much of the success of the Logan partnership in recent seasons has been from a platform of ensuring a horse does not have a flat-out hard gallop the start before its grand final.
In Rising Romance's case there couldn't possibly have been a chance of having her 100 per cent fit after a setback and a five-week gap.
She finished off nicely into fourth and apart from being fitter and harder this time, is guaranteed to better enjoy the 2400m, something she showed when charging home late from an impossible position to get close to Puccini in the Derby at Ellerslie last month.
Lucia Valentina has yet to try 2400m and her connections, headed by trainer Chris Lees, are hoping the filly will manage, rather than being confident of it.
Before the Storm Queen the two fillies met in the 2000m Royal Stakes at Ellerslie on January 1 with Rising Romance easily breezing past Lucia Valentina to score by 1 lengths.
Being trained in Australia now possibly gives Lucia Valentina a one length or so advantage over a visiting Rising Romance, but that length and half in the Royal Stakes negates that.
Add in the fact Rising Romance will be fitter this time and that the 2400m will definitely suit and you start to appreciate that the $6 to $2.60 differential may not be an accurate indication.
Randwick is drying under better weather, but almost certainly the best that can be hoped for is borderline slow/heavy.
Rising Romance hadn't raced in heavy conditions until the Storm Queen and although she might prefer better footing this time, the ground will not totally hamper her.
Her dam, although of much lesser class, was good in the wet.
Meanwhile, there has been an Australasia-wide betting plunge on It's A Dundeel in the A$4 million Queen Elizabeth 11 Stakes.
The outstanding stallion has not won a race this campaign and has raced lengths off his best while under a cloud with foot problems.
When betting for today's historic race opened early this week, It's A Dundeel was the $6 third favourite behind the Queen's horse Carlton House at $3.50 and fellow New Zealander Silent Achiever at $4.60.
In one of the most dramatic betting turnarounds in a major race in recent years, It's A Dundeel was last night the $3.80 favourite in Australia and $3.50 favourite on the New Zealand TAB.