Vaughan Gunson: MMP handbrake on pie in the sky election promises

National Party leader Judith Collins at the $31 billion transport announcement last week. The stakes are high, and so, like Labour last time, it's the moment when you start promising big. Photo / NZME

LIFE AND POLITICS

One of the most brilliant grabs for votes in New Zealand's history was Jacinda Ardern's "climate change is my generation's nuclear-free moment" at the last election.

That memorable line raised hopes and helped win back Labour support from the Greens.

When I say brilliant, I might also say it was intentionally deceptive, bordering on dishonest.

Labour was never going to be serious about slashing carbon emissions once in power. Not when they're tied to growing the economy, like every other party in Parliament.

And so Ardern's climate change battle cry has been left to die on the wind.

But it did the job at the time and helped firm up Labour's vote back in the uncertain days prior to the 2017 election.

Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern in August 2017 at her first Labour Party policy announcement. Ardern's climate change battle cry has been left to die on the wind, says Vaughan Gunson. Photo / NZME

This time it's National down in the polls. And like Labour in 2017, the worst thing that could happen would be for National to be regarded as having no chance of forming the next Government.

National voters might then start to look at alternatives or vote tactically. If National's not going to win, why not flick a vote to Act?

Or, as Winston Peters is plainly hoping, National voters, scared of a Labour-Greens Government, might swing to NZ First.

For National, the stakes are high, and so like Labour last time, it's the moment when you start promising big. Like bigger even than "Think Big" big.

It's all in National's infrastructure announcement: four-lane highways, including Whangārei to Tauranga, new motorways and busways in Auckland, a third harbour crossing, electric rail, and a couple of tunnels through mountain ranges. All done without raising taxes.

A ferry crossing Cook Strait earlier this year. Vaughan Gunson says he was surprised National didn't include a tunnel under it in the party's $31 billion infrastructure plan. Photo / Supplied

It's like Christmas in reverse. Usually it's the parents who have to be realistic about their kids' wishlist of everything, new iPhone, new Xbox, gaming TV, and AirPods to boot.

Politicians, who you might wish to be more responsible and realistic, like a good parent, are instead the ones saying you can have everything.

National's extravagant promises (aren't they the party of fiscal restraint?) would be great if all any of us cared about was getting around the place slightly quicker.

There's no limit to how many billions you can spend on achieving this if you're not interested in maintaining hospitals and the like. Why not a tunnel under Cook Strait? I'm surprised it wasn't on the list.

It may as well have been. National's infrastructure announcement had as much hot air in it as Ardern claiming to lead action on climate change.

You would be foolish to think National will deliver on even half of it. Most of the biggest projects are uncosted and conveniently dated to start some time in the 2030s, beyond the political lifespan of most politicians.

And who knows what disruptions the world will face from climate change, resource depletion and increasing energy costs by then. Or what level of debt New Zealand will be struggling under.

If borrowing to build a 7km road tunnel under the Kaimai mountain range looks a dubious proposition now, it might be utterly absurd in 20 years.

Perhaps this is National's last chance to put a smorgasbord of multibillion-dollar roads in front of voters. One last push before most of us accept there's no future in mega-roading projects that don't make economic, environmental or fiscal sense.

It might prove to be a brilliant, if cynical, political ploy. Enough to even catapult new leader Judith Collins into contention come election time.

Having seen it all before, however, I can only suggest that the hyped-promises from all parties cancel each other out in the end. It's mostly just branding, not to be taken too seriously.

We vote for the party with the overall brand we like, knowing they won't come through with all they're promising. MMP doesn't easily allow it anyway.

And we're adults after all, not children. We know you can't have everything you want for Christmas. Even if some politicians would like to promise us this is so.

• Northern Advocate columnist Vaughan Gunson writes about life and politics.