Northland Expressway.
There are concerns the Northland Expressway could be canned by a new Government including the Greens, following an independent report that prompted scepticism from two main opposition parties.
The Transport and Infrastructure Select Committee commissioned report looked into an earlier report by the New Zealand Institute of Economic Research (NZIER) that touted the benefits of a four-lane highway from Auckland to Whangārei.
NZIER found investing in a four-lane expressway would unlock growth in Northland and could boost national GDP by $1.2 billion a year by 2050.
Dr Simon Chapple’s independent report, included in last month’s briefing to the select committee, criticised NZIER’s findings.
“NZIER report is advocacy research, paid for by people with monetary skin in the game ... meaning its conclusions need to be regarded with caution by the public,” he said.
NZIER pushed back against the criticisms of its report commissioned by the Northland Corporate Group (NCG).
Chief executive Jason Shoebridge said NZIER stood by its modelling and independence: " ... at no time was the project team put under pressure, explicitly or implicitly, by our client to arrive a particular finding on this project."
The fallout from Chapple’s report was that the Greens and Labour considered the evidence provided to the committee during the briefing to be “wholly insufficient” to conclude the Northland Expressway was the best way of improving transport links, economic productivity and increasing resilience for Northland.
“The unknown, but likely extremely high, cost of a new four-lane expressway must be evaluated against other investments in infrastructure and services that will benefit the people of Northland,” the parties said.
Northland MP Grant McCallum, who is on the committee, said he was concerned the highway could be scrapped under a Labour-led government.
Their comments were “irresponsible”, he said.
“They’re letting down the people of Northland.”
McCallum said big infrastructure projects such as the Northland Expressway – which the current Government last year announced would be accelerated and is already under way – needed the support of all parties for the betterment of Northland and Auckland.
He pointed to other major roading projects canned under Labour, including a project to upgrade State Highway 1 between Whangārei and Port Marsden Highway in 2021.
“These big infrastructure projects, they take a long time to build, they require a pipeline that the Parliament agrees on as a whole,” McCallum said.
“The challenge for Northland is that it has been stop-start; you get a bit done and there’s a change of government.
“You don’t get the outcome in a timely manner.”
Labour said it “has been clear it will not cancel significant infrastructure projects already under way under the current coalition”.
But Labour’s transport spokesman Tangi Utikere said there were other transport options that could be considered such as rail, especially for freight.
Utikere said NZIER did not undertake any evaluation of alternatives.
The briefing said some members of the committee expressed concerns about the methodology used in NZIER’s report, noting it relied largely on assumptions about the effect the Northland Corridor would have on GDP.
Speaking for NZIER, Shoebridge said much of the criticism came from an expectation that its report be a full cost-benefit analysis.
NZIER had explicitly stated in its own report that it was not that.
Shoebridge said NZIER had outlined that cost-benefit analysis should be commissioned by the Government, but that was not referenced by Chapple.
“As the full route hasn’t even been designed yet, it was impossible for us to do a full cost-benefit analysis as reliable estimates of the cost do not exist.”
Green Party transport spokeswoman Julie Anne Genter said the independent advice “was scathing”.
“While people may believe a four-lane highway is the best solution, the reality is ... there is no evidence to show this is the best investment.
“Investing in passenger services could be more beneficial, as well as improving existing roads.”
Shoebridge said despite Chapple’s report accounting for fewer benefits, NZIER’s calculated economic benefit fell within a range that Chapple had calculated in his report.
The Northland Corridor is a 100km stretch of highway connecting Auckland to Northland.
It has been split into three phases: Warkworth to Te Hana – which is already designated and consented; Te Hana to Port Marsden, including an alternative route over the Brynderwyn Hills; and Port Marsden to Whangārei.
NZ Transport Agency (NZTA) said the new highway would unlock economic growth and productivity, and provide more resilience during extreme weather events.
It would also address the “critical resilience and safety issues”, as Northland has one of the worst safety records in the country.
Northland Corporate Group co-chairwoman Rosie Mercer said NZIER’s report transparently acknowledged the inherent uncertainty in economic modelling, “which is why it presents results from three different approaches rather than relying on a single method.”
A survey of Northland businesses in 2023 found the total cost of Brynderwyn closures was between $3.3 million and $14.6m per day, Mercer said.
“So, this isn’t some minor inconvenience.
“Freight delays, rising costs, and poor access are forcing companies to rethink how and where they operate in the region.
“The real issue is the lack of reliable, year-round infrastructure.
“Without proper investment, we risk losing the momentum we’re all working hard to build.”
Te Tai Tokerau-based Green list MP Hūhana Lyndon said a four-lane highway from Auckland to Northland was important.
“But we need a guarantee that rail will be working alongside it.
“We don’t want to have more trucks on the road, and four-lane highways do that.”
Lyndon said the report “clearly points to the need for further work and analysis on costings which officials did not include in their reporting”.
Whangārei Mayor Vince Cocurullo said he was “always concerned” about changes of government, especially for Northland.
“At the end of the day, four-laning is needed for Auckland as well.
“It’s not all about Northland, it’s about benefiting Auckland.”
Jenny Ling is a senior journalist at the Northern Advocate. She has a special interest in covering human interest stories, along with finance, roading, and animal welfare issues.
The group planted more than 120,000 native plants and installed 16km of fencing.