Feed more plentiful but fear of drought persists

Colin Hadlow had nothing to feed his cows during last year's drought but has plenty of grass this year. Photo / John Stone

Another drought combined with the low milksolids payout forecast could nudge some Northland dairy farmers into the red this summer.

"A lot of guys will be working for nothing this year," Kaipara dairy farmer Colin Hadlow said.

He had a tough time coping last summer, when he spent $400,000 buying feed to keep milking 280 of the 700 cows on his 400ha coastal farm southwest of Dargaville.

But the big feed bill made sense when he got paid the record $8.40kgMS for the 235,000kgMS his cows produced.

It's different story this year with an eight-year low projected milk price of $4.70 a kilogram of milksolids.

There will be no spare money as dairy farmers tighten their belts and prepare to battle their way through the difficult spell, hoping the payout pendulum swings back their way.

Hadlow is not expecting to buy feed this summer, but the reduced milksolids price could trim $750,000 off his farm income.

Last season, Kaipara west coast farmers went into summer with no grass when the third drought in four years began drying their land.

However, last spring was kind to the coast and 90mm of rain in mid-December has given Hadlow "more grass than we know what to do with".

"We haven't had to feed out any silage this summer and we have put in extra chicory," he says.

"We put in 15ha of extra green feed and we haven't had to open it up yet.

"We've got about 200 tonnes on hand and, if we don't use it, we can stack it."

Beef farmer Kim Biddles also has plenty of grass, unlike the "diabolical" summer last year when he was struggling to feed 650 cows on his 450ha on the west coast south of Te Kopuru.

"Since mid-October we have had a magnificent season," he says.

"It's been a better than normal summer for us."

Even if dry conditions take hold, the farm has enough cover to see stock through until winter.

Nasa and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration scientists have said last year was the warmest since 1880.

Irrigation restrictions are already in place in parts of Canterbury and North Otago and increasingly drought-like conditions could have a big impact on farmers in other regions in the coming weeks.

Niwa principal climate scientist Andrew Tait says if there is insufficient rain in the next few weeks, the country could be heading into a serious drought.

And James Renwick, professor of physical geography at Victoria University of Wellington, says: "New Zealand is on track to see increased drought in eastern regions and over the northern part of the North Island, as a result of human-induced climate change."

The MetService tipped showers for Whangarei and Dargaville on Monday and yesterday, with rain and northeasterlies tomorrow followed by more showers.

The Kaitaia and Kerikeri forecast was for showers on Monday, yesterday and today, rain with northeast winds tomorrow and Saturday and more showers from Sunday until Tuesday.