And the chances of Mr Reti not being high enough on the National party list to enter parliament are minuscule. Easy to say of course, without being able to assess the calibre of all the party candidates, and the robust arguments that we're sure all parties will put up for voters.
A changing of the guard and the MMP system also gives voters a time to reflect on the performance of individuals and parties.
Mr Reti will be aware of the pressure to at least retain the 12,000 plus majority that Mr Heatley took from the 2011 election. And how he performs on the husting will impact on the votes he gets.
How he performs as an elected MP, that's still some way off from being assessed, at least, by the court of public opinion via an election.
One point that should be noted - many Northlanders have become less content with their lot in recent times, and increasingly expect more bang for their rate or tax-paying buck from their politicians.
In that regard, being an incoming politician in an electorate where the predecessor held a large majority is as much a political blessing as it is a curse and we suspect Mr Reti will be - unlike some of his constituents (this newspaper included) - assuming nothing.
