Drought looming for North

Northland is heading for another drought, like this one that scorched paddocks in January 2014, above. Photo / File

Weather boffins are warning a drought they say is almost certain to hit Northland this summer could rank among the previous four strongest El Nino events.

The season climate outlook for September to November, released by the National Institute for Water and Atmospheric Research (Niwa), predicted surface water temperatures were expected to be in the below normal range, particularly on the East Coast. International weather patterns, especially sea surface temperature anomalies in the central and eastern Pacific intensifying during August, indicate El Nino is certain to continue from September to November and is extremely likely to persist into summer.

"The current state of the ocean-atmosphere in the Pacific and the international consensus forecast suggest that this event could then rank amongst the four strongest El Nino events recorded in 1972/73, 1982/83 and 1997/98. An elevated risk for drought for parts of New Zealand is anticipated later during summer, in particular for eastern parts of both islands as well as northern areas of the North Island," the climate outlook said.

Niwa climate scientist Chris Brandolino said the risk of a drought for Northland was elevated because of severe El Nino events in the past which all resulted in significant dry weather.

"We still have to get through spring but parts of the North Island are likely to receive below average rainfall from now on," he said.

Northland Rural Support Trust co-ordinator, Julie Jonker, said farmers had already begun cutting down their expense as they were well aware of a looming dry spell.

"The only thing they'll be watching on is to ensure they have enough supplement. In saying that, a lot depends on how the El Nino manifests itself. It's one of those things where you plan for the worst and hope for the best and farmers are really adapted to doing that," she said.

Minister for Primary Industries, Nathan Guy, said he would be keeping a close eye on weather conditions in Northland. He said El Ninos were part of any business risk farmers managed. Niwa and the MetService provided information to help manage risks.

"If extreme weather events occur the Government also provides assistance through Rural Support Trusts based on the specific need and severity of the event. An El Nino increases the likelihood of more frequent or severe adverse events, but only accounts for part of the variance in New Zealand's weather," he said.

The Government has allocated $75,000 towards a study to investigate the potential of irrigation in Northland, which he said could help with dry conditions.