Mid Canterbury are favourites to collect five points and move on to 17 when they host Ngati Porou East Coast at Ashburton.
A Bay loss would also open the door for North Otago, on 11 points, to drop the Bay to 10th place, leaving the Bay with an uphill battle to finish in the top eight.
North Otago will hope that home advantage gives them the edge over West Coast, who are sixth on 17 points.
If ever there was a time for a home win, it is this weekend.
Coaches and players often say they take “one game at a time”, and at the end of the day that is true.
But a win this weekend for coach Mana Otai’s men would also give a huge confidence boost ahead of next week’s clash away to King Country,
However, the Bay will need to play a lot better than they did against Ngati Porou East Coast if they are to beat an in-form Thames Valley side who go into the match on the back of a stunning 43-21 win against North Otago at Te Aroha last week.
It was Valley’s first win against North Otago in the Heartland Championship.
Valley’s pack set the platform. Solid in set pieces, with a mobile loose trio, they provided front-foot ball for a lively backline.
Valley got off to a flying start, scoring 28 points without reply in 30 minutes, before going in at halftime 33-7 ahead.
North Otago staged a comeback in the second half but the home side were never in danger of losing.
The Bay, on the other hand, struggled to beat a fired-up Ngati Porou East Coast side who are still searching for their first Heartland win in five years.
The Bay players, particularly halfback Willy Grogan, showed plenty of commitment, but their play lacked spark and included too many mistakes, all over the field.
It took a superb piece of opportunism by Counsell, who replaced Grogan, to save his side from embarrassment.
Fullback/winger Andrew Tauatevalu looked dangerous on attack but was starved of possession for most of the 80 minutes.
FOOTNOTE: While history is on the Bay’s side — they have won four of the previous six meetings between the teams — all the victories have been away from Gisborne.
Thames Valley’s two wins have been at Rugby Park (43-37 in 2015 and 27-18 in 2013).