One Chance was a platinum album, a movie and a memoir of opera-singing underdog Paul Potts. That title is also the stark rugby reality facing Poverty Bay Weka on Saturday.
The Paoraian Manuel-Harman-coached Weka play North Otago Old Golds (2.30pm kick-off) in Ōamaru in the Lochore Cup (fifth-to-eighth) semifinalsof the 2025 Heartland Championship.
The Bay have made four changes to the side who lost 29-24 to Wairarapa Bush in golden point extra time in the final round-robin game last weekend.
Harawira Kahukura will start at lock and strongman Niko Lauti shifts to No 8 in place of the dynamic Uini Fetalaiga, who injured his left arm in the Wairarapa Bush game.
That is a huge blow to the Weka as Fetalaiga has been outstanding, and it comes on top of co-captain and flanker Keanu Taumata suffering a season-ending injury against the Bush.
In the backs, Kyoni Te Amo-Poki has moved from fullback to left wing in place of Matt Proffit, whose younger brother Nic will start in the No 15 jersey.
On the reserves bench, co-captain and tighthead prop Lance Dickson, Ryan Jones, James Grogan, Anthony Karauria and the older Proffit are in for George Ormond, Kahukura, Siosiua Moala and Te-Reimana Gray.
Poverty Bay flanker Ryan Jones returns to action off the bench for the Bay's Lochore Cup semifinal against North Otago in Ōamaru on Saturday. Photo / Paul Rickard
Fetcher Jones was superb for his High School Old Boys’ premier club side, in the representative pre-season and the Heartland Championship before injuring his left shoulder against King Country.
The cloud of his loss did have a silver lining. Mahia’s Lennox Shanks switched from centre to openside flanker in Jones’ absence and has excelled.
Dickson and Lauti have big shoes to fill, but they are more than capable of doing so.
Lauti is powerful in the tight exchanges and has terrorised all opposition with ball in hand.
Hooker and co-captain Ngahiwi Manuel has also been hugely influential, scoring nine tries in the competition.
Manuel-Harman wants his crew to dominate at set-piece and be aggressive in defence, but also enjoy the moment.
North Otago first-year head coach Luke Herden anticipates a crowd of 3000 and excellent conditions.
“I expect both teams to play fast rugby. It’s more a matter of who defends the best,” said Herden, who was capped 56 times for North Otago and won four caps for Otago.
“Our fitness levels weren’t up to it in the first two competition games. Since then, we’ve had blocks of conditioning after trainings, and it shows.”
The brains trust for each team will rest with their forwards - for the Bay, Dickson and Manuel; for the home team, long-serving hooker Hayden Tisdall and, off the reserves bench, blindside flanker and co-captain Cameron Rowland.
Japanese halfback Kippei Taninaka - described by Herden as “electric” - has speed, length and accuracy of pass that will allow the hosts to play quickly.
While Poverty Bay suffered an agonising loss to the Bush last weekend, the Old Golds were doing it hard against top-of-the-table Mid Canterbury in Ashburton - the Hammers thumping them 47-7.
That will add to North Otago’s motivational store as will their earlier meeting with the Weka. In that week 5 clash in Oamaru, the Bay led 26-12 at the break but North Otago came roaring back to win 59-33.
The unions have crossed swords 29 times over 30 years - North Otago have won 20 times, the Bay eight and one match was drawn.
The Bay beat North Otago 40-35 away in the 1 v 4 Lochore Cup semifinal in 2023 before losing to West Coast in the final.
Both sides have enjoyed Lochore Cup success over Heartland history. Poverty Bay have won it four times; North Otago twice, along with three Meads Cup (top four) titles.
Saturday’s referee is farm manager Caleb Neilson of Otago in his sixth first-class appointment.
Poverty Bay Weka, 1-15: Toma Laumalili,Ngahiwi Manuel (cc), Iose Brown, Harawira Kahukura, Leka Palusa, Atonio Vukicicakaudrove, Lennox Shanks, Niko Lauti, Henry Saker, Tayler Adams, Kyoni TeAmo-Poki, Braedyn Grant, Cohen Loffler, Josaia Bosaka, Nic Proffitt.
Res: Saigeon Carmichael, Lance Dickson (cc), Sam Hudson, Ryan Jones, James Grogan, Silas Brown, Anthony Karauria, Matt Proffit.
North Otago, 1-15: Kelepi Funaki, Hayden Tisdall (cc), Steve Salelea, Ratu Logavatu, Anthony Docherty, Mitchell Morton, Toni Taufa, Junior Fakatoufifita, Kippei Taninaka, Lachlan Kingan, Ben McCarthy, Mataitini Feke, Matia Qiolevu, Sevenaia Druma, Ben Paton.
Res: Jake Greenslade, Abraham Lauaki, Lisivani Tuifua, Cameron Rowland (cc), Robbie Lailvaux, Seru Cavuilati, Isaac Clunie, Mason James.