Weather scientists predicting low risk of cyclones

A109 Light Utility Helicopter flight with mayor Gisborne City from the air in November 2023.

Good news on the cyclone front — climatologists believe there is a reduced risk to New Zealand in the season ahead.

After the unexpected devastation caused by two cyclones and other sub-tropical rain events this year, this forecast is most welcome to the Gisborne-East Cape region.

The cyclone season normally runs from November through to April.

Weather scientists use sophisticated computer models to assess whether conditions indicate a more or less active cyclone season.

The forecast for the season ahead is just out, and indicates near-normal activity for the area of the Pacific of concern to New Zealand.

The Long-Range Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Southwest Pacific predicts nine cyclones for this season.

Dr Andrew Magee, Centre for Water, Climate and Land, University of Newcastle, Australia, says there is a 55 percent chance there will be an average or below-average number of cyclones this season.

For New Zealand, the outlook is predicted to be below average, with the possibility of a cyclone being assessed as less than one.

Meanwhile the latest El Nino bulletin from the major climate agencies says there is a 96 percent chance of El Nino conditions over November and January.

Their confidence on El Nino persisting through summer is based on the recording of “quite a lot of warmer-than-average water under the surface of the tropical Pacific”.

The US Climate Prediction Centre says the temperature of the subsurface in June was the third-warmest June value in records which go back to 1979.

This warmer water is expected to sustain El Nino conditions, which for this district usually means less rain and the risk of drought.

On the day-to-day weather front, MetService has issued a strong wind watch for the Gisborne/Tairawhiti region, with the usual cautionary warnings.

The watch notice says from 7am this morning to 7pm tonight, south to southwest winds may approach severe gale in exposed places.