A109 Light Utility Helicopter flight with mayor Gisborne City from the air in November 2023.
A109 Light Utility Helicopter flight with mayor Gisborne City from the air in November 2023.
The “resignation election” rolls on with Peter Dunne the third party leader to stand down in just three weeks, as this fascinating campaign winds into full operation across an entirely unexpected political landscape — with just a month now till election day.
One of the main effects of the twistsand turns of 2017 is a narrowing of focus to the two major parties. That has obviously happened in spades on the left, with the Green Party losing two-thirds of its support to Labour from one Colmar Brunton-One News poll to the next.
There is less scope for this on the right as National already dominates, but New Zealand First could see further erosion — down from 13 percent support across polls in July to 10 percent in the latest Colmar poll — as its rural and more conservative backers react to the growing possibility of Winston Peters crowning Jacinda Ardern in a Labour-Greens-NZ First coalition.
This is shaping up now as a battle between red and blue teams, like first-past-the-post elections of old. Encouragingly, it looks set to be fought on policy rather than personalities. Well, National is certainly pushing that line, noting the halo still seeming to hover over Labour’s new leader. There are a host of major differences in key policy areas, with Labour likely to add to that after the Government opens its books tomorrow.
One possible outcome of it all, though, could be the first minority government in the MMP era. If New Zealand First does indeed hold the balance of power after September 23, there’s a chance neither major party will accede to enough of Peters’ wishes. They know already there are risks hopping into bed with him.
The surpise resignation of Dunne, another veteran of New Zealand politics, does not change the mathematics much for National. In recent weeks it had become clear he was unlikely to retain his Ohariu electorate seat. It does, however, confirm that the task of forming a fourth-term government will be more difficult.
How voters respond to these events, possibilities and the major-party policy platforms will be as interesting as the past month in politics has been.
