Fortunately, we here in Godzone are in a position where we can remain committed to our emissions reduction targets without having to face the threat of blackouts at a time when any replacement power stations are still in the pipeline.
But we do need to make good use of that precious time in order that the choices we make about our future mix of clean energy supply are the ones most suited to the economy we operate, and not necessarily the ones that would curry favour with our fellow humans on the other side of the word.
Secondly, having established what type of current energy supply needs to be replaced with clean plants, we can identify the alternatives that meet the following criteria:
1) Price of establishing the replacement plant.
Consideration is currently being given to a pump hydro scheme at Lake Onslow in the lower South Island, which is likely to be rejected based on a number of comparative factors.
For one, it is uncompetitive with other options that have a similar capacity to meet baseload energy needs when demand is high and there is a shortfall in other supply. The estimated establishment cost of the Lake Onslow proposal is approx $15 billion, which is almost twice the establishment cost of a medium-sized nuclear plant with the same capacity.
Other factors include:
2) Operational costs of plant.
Pump hydro plants use a huge amount of the energy they produce pumping the water uphill to the lake where it can be reused.
3) Reliability — wind and solar will always have a question mark over them until batteries are large enough to store the energy they produce when the wind blows and the Sun shines.
4) Distance from the end user — particularly important when the bulk of the population resides in the top half of the Nth Island.
5) Environmental considerations related to plant site and disposal of any waste materials.
There is a current environmental lobby which appears opposed to building large new hydro plants anywhere in the country, even though it is debatable whether this would be the best option for provinces like ours where the efficient use of stored water is a critical factor in the choices we should make.
All in all, some interesting choices we have at our disposal.
My concern is and has always been that we look at the choices dispassionately — simply selecting those that are the best fit for a country of our size and philosophical heritage.