You can tell where this is going. Aotearoa New Zealand has an international reputation for reasonableness. Our convenient geographical distance from China, strong trade ties and lack of competing strategic objectives mean we can retain positive relations where other countries have failed.
However, healthy boundaries in any relationship are crucial. We really need to consider how we can be in a position to say “no” to China should the need arise.
Unfortunately, we don’t have a strong defence force — in fact, it is growing weaker, having lost 30 percent of uniformed staff over the past two years. Military infrastructure and equipment here are too thin on the ground, outdated and malfunctioning.
To accomplish anywhere near the capability necessary to pose a military deterrence as the “Switzerland of the South Pacific”, New Zealand would have to spend more money, demand more from its citizens, and telegraph a change of tack that would invite aggression.
A better strategic option would be to maintain our interoperability with military ally Australia while signalling diplomatic appeasement to key trade partner China. Hence Plan Hedgehog.
If we sign up to Pillar II of AUKUS, we can steer clear of the nuclear option, offering up a shrug and a friendly grin to China, all the while ensuring the quills are on hand if needed.
Some subtle diplomacy is necessary to accomplish this objective: to make it clear to China that New Zealand is taking a step towards technological advancement, but not away from its relationship with China and — importantly — not anywhere near nuclear capability.
Hedgehogs are smaller and more personable than their porcupine counterparts, but they do share some common tactics. No stink bombs for them, but a few spikes that can keep them protected long enough for predators to get bored and go after something easier.
