Mr Lister told The Herald his advice to investors was normally to ‘‘keep their feet on the ground and expectations low’’.
There had been four years of significant growth and those sort of gains were unlikey to continue.
Those early years had been a ‘‘rebound’’ from the Global Financial Crisis, but the later years showed the benefit of a very healthy economy.
Some New Zealand companies were making a lot of money.
People were moving from banks paying 3 percent interest to the sharemarket where there were yields of 5, 6, 7 or 8 percent.
Sharemarket stands outInterest rates were going down and ‘‘the sharemarket stands out’’.
But Mr Lister said the market did not remotely compare to the boom-and-bust years of the late 1980s.
New Zealand was performing better than Australia.
The economy of the “lucky country’’ had gone pear-shaped with the Chinese downturn having a major effect on its mining industry — catching the Australian economy in a bubble.
Mr Lister said 20 percent of New Zealand exports went to China but the equivalent Australian figure was more than 35 percent.
New Zealand was also experiencing a net migration gain for the first time since 1991. The country usually lost 40,000 people each year, with net migration to Australia outnumbering immigration from Britain and Asia.
But now there was a net gain from Australia. About 65,000 people were moving/returning to New Zealand, with half of them settling in Auckland.
That largely explained the housing issue. There were not enough houses.
Net migration gains resulted in benefits like more economic activity but there were other consequences like pressure on infrastructure.
Mr Lister said the dairy sector had been going through a challenging period for the past three years, which could be seen in regions like Taranaki.
Good seven yearsThere had been a previous good period of seven years, but dairy was a global market which no one could control. The industry was going through ‘‘a speed bump’’ .
But he was confident of the industry’s prospects in the long-term because of demand from a growing Chinese middle class.
Mr Lister said the market might be nervous about the possibility of a Donald Trump presidency.
“It may be surprising, but we don’t think the election is the be-all and end-all.”
The US political system was very complicated and did not effect the economy as much as some might think.
“We quite like the American economy, sharemarket and the US dollar. Our view does not materially change on whoever the president is.’’
The Trans Pacific Partnership Agreement looked like it was at risk with a Trump or Hillary Clinton presidency.
Not much to gain from TPPABut many sectors would not have much to gain from TPPA. Those sectors most likely to benefit, such as beef exporters to Japan and the wine and tech industries, would not go backwards if the trade agreement did not proceed.
Mr Lister said Mrs Clinton remained the favourite to win the White House, tipped at a 60-80 percent chance of victory.
That was the calculation of various US media outlets and data-based election predictor FiveThirtyEight after examining election developments, voting demographics and the electoral college where Clinton’s Democrats hold a significant advantage.
The New York Times published an article this morning, which gave Mrs Clinton a 67 percent chance of winning.
