Wild weather on the way to Bay

Between 70mm and 90mm of rain is expected to fall today.

It's only the second day of winter and a severe weather warning has already been issued for the Bay.

A heavy rain warning has been issued for the Bay of Plenty with up to 90mm of rain expected to fall in Tauranga today.

MetService meteorologist Rob Kerr said there would be heavy rain early today.

Between 70mm and 90mm was expected to fall in Tauranga, with the heaviest showers due towards the afternoon and evening, with possible thunderstorms.

Peak intensities of 20mm to 30mm per hour are likely.

The Kaimai Range was expected to be hit with a period of heavy rain late tomorrow and early Thursday, with moderate confidence of accumulations reaching warning criteria.

Yesterday, 19mm of rain fell before 3pm.

Overnight temperatures are looking to rise, with an expected low of 14C last night, 12C tonight and tomorrow. In the last five days of May, overnight temperatures were at 4C and 5C.

Winter is looking to be dry this year, according to Niwa's climate outlook for June to August. Rainfall is most likely to be below average in the Bay of Plenty in the next three months, with a 40 per cent probability it will be less than average and a 35 per cent chance it will be near average.

Soil moisture is also 40 per cent likely to be below average.

Temperatures should be normal for winter, with a 45 per cent likelihood they will be near average, and a 35 per cent chance they will be above average.

An El Nino weather event has been confirmed in the tropical Pacific and has a 90 per cent chance of continuing in the next three months.

In New Zealand, an El Nino system typically brings cooler, wetter conditions, with higher rainfall in regions that were normally wet, and often drought to areas that were usually dry.

The likelihood of El Nino persisting or strengthening going into spring is also high, above 80 per cent.